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India Mining Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 88 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: India's mining sector will experience solid growth, primarily boosted by the country's positivereforms and vast mineral reserves. Despite this, the sector will continue to face challenges due to thecountry's inadequate operating environment, mining royalties and low metals prices, which will preventIndia from reaching its full growth potential.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- India will continue to suffer from a persistent coal deficit over the coming years although the countrypossesses one of the world's largest coal reserves and has significant production growth potential. Weforecast India's coal output to grow from 753mn tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 1,014mnt in 2020, postingaverage annual growth of 7.6% during 2016-2020, a sizeable acceleration from an average growth of4.5% annually during 2011-2015. This is because the Indian government has made great progress inimproving coal mine production and coal offtake in recent quarters.

- We forecast India's iron ore output to grow from 159.9mnt in 2016 to 198.8mnt in 2020. This representsan average annual growth of 5.0% during 2016-2020, higher than the average contraction of 5.6% y-o-yover 2011-2015, following mining bans in the three largest iron-ore producing states of Goa, Odisha andKarnataka, which have since been lifted. Although the passing of the Mines & Minerals Developmentand Regulation Act will support India's iron ore output growth, weak iron ore prices will limit the sectorgrowth outlook. We forecast iron ore prices to average USD52.0/tonne over 2016-2020, significantlylower than USD115.0/tonne during 2011-2015. This is due to oversupply from Australian miners andweakened Chinese demand for iron ore.

Table Of Contents

India Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: India - Mining Industry Value Forecast 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
Industry Forecast 11
Bauxite: Ordinance To Boost Production 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (India 2015-2020) 12
Table: India - Bauxite Projects 12
Structural Trends 12
Iron Ore: MMDR Act, Two Sides Of A Coin 16
Latest Developments 16
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (India 2012-2020) 16
Table: India - New Iron Ore Projects 16
Structural Trends 17
Zinc: HZL To Lift Growth 21
Latest Developments 21
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (India 2012-2020) 21
Table: India - Select Zinc Mining Projects 21
Structural Trends 22
Coal India To Lead Growth Drive 25
Latest Developments 25
Table: Coal Production Forecast (India 2014-2020) 25
Table: India - Select Coal Mine Projects 25
Structural Trends 26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 34
India - Risk/Reward Index 34
Rewards 34
Industry Rewards 34
Country Rewards 34
Risks 34
Industry Risks 34
Country Risks 35
Asia Risk Reward Index 35
Australia Stays On Top While India and Myanmar Gain 35
Shifting Scores Reflect Changing Sector Dynamics 36
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 37
Regulatory Development 38
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 39
Commodities Forecast 43
Commodity Strategy 43
Ferrous Metals 43
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years 43
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices 45
Non-Ferrous Metals 48
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn 48
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade 50
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue 51
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth 52
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices 53
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead 54
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 56
Competitive Landscape 57
Table: India - Select Listed Mining Companies 59
Company Profile 60
Coal India Ltd (CIL) 60
Table: Coal India Ltd - Key Financial Data 63
Hindustan Copper 64
Table: Hindustan Copper-Supply Chain Analysis 66
Table: Hindustan Copper - Key Financial Data 67
Table: NMDC- Supply Chain Analysis 70
Table: NMDC - Key Financial Data 72
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q1 2016 73
Latest Financial Results 75
Company Strategy 76
Table: Vedanta Resources - Supply Chain Analysis 77
Company Details 78
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data 79
Regional Overview 80
Continued Domination Of Iron Ore Production 80
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 81
China and India To Lead In Outbound Investment 82
Indonesian Ban To Continue 84
Methodology 85
Industry Forecast Methodology 85
Sources 86
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 88

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