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China Mining Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 85 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:
China's mining sector will face ongoing challenges from low mineral prices over the coming years. Government supported consolidation will support production growth, but, depleting reserves, falling ore grades and the relatively short life span of domestic mines will further drive outward Chinese investment.


Latest Updates & Structural Trends
- While cooling Chinese economic growth will adversely impact mining operations, we expect the impact to vary across different mineral segments. Lead and copper mining production growth will decline less
strongly than iron ore and lead, due to a more resilient price environment for these metals.
- China's structural shortfall in domestic production combined with the government's desire for resource security will continue to spur overseas mining deals. Although China's reliance on imports will increase due to the country's depleting reserves, falling ore grades and the relatively short life span of mines, outbound investment will face more caution, as Chinese projects are increasingly faced with rising costs and project delays. As a result, Chinese firms' 2015 mining merger and acquisition activity (M&A) in Latin America slowed to USD2.1bn, a 72.8% y-o-y decrease from 2014. Chinese mining M&A activity in the Middle East and Africa also fell significantly, by 46.0% y-o-y, to USD135mn in 2015. Chinese metal investment in Sub Saharan Africa also dropped in 2015 to USD1.2bn, significantly lower than USD4.0bn in 2014 and USD8.4bn in 2013.

Table Of Contents

China Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: China Mining Industry Value . . 7
Latest Updates and Structural Trends . 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Bauxite: Growth To Cool, Dependency To Rise . 11
Latest Developments ... 11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) . . 11
Structural Trends ... 11
Imports: Growth In Short Term And Long Term ... 12
Risks To Production Outlook 14
China - Coal: Regulations To Result In Contraction ... 14
Latest Developments ... 14
Table: Coal Production Forecasts . 15
Structural Trends ... 15
Government To Push For Consolidation . 16
Weak Margins To Subdue Growth . 18
Table: China - Select Coal Mining Projects 19
Energy Production To Remain Coal Dominated ... 19
China - Copper: Low Price To Provide Headwinds To Domestic Production .. 22
Latest Developments ... 22
Table: Copper Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) . . 22
Structural Trends ... 22
Table: China - Select Copper Projects . . 23
Gold: Five Key Themes . 25
Table: Gold Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) . 25
Table: China - Overseas Gold Mining Deals . . 31
Iron Ore: Output To Decline, Imports Remain Strong . 32
Latest Developments ... 32
Table: China Iron Ore Production Forecast . . 32
Structural Trends ... 33
Price Weakness To Hurt Miners 33
Small-Scale Miners To Come Under The Most Pressure 34
Strict Regulations To Increase Import Preference . 35
Nickel: Weak Domestic Growth .. 37
Latest Developments ... 37
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 37
Structural Trends ... 37
Further Consolidation . 38
Table: China - Select Nickel Projects . 38
Risks To Outlook 39
Tin: Yunnan Tin To Drive Growth ... 40
Latest Developments ... 40
Table: Tin Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 40
Structural Trends ... 40
Risks To Outlook 42
Lead: Growth To Stagnate . 43
Latest Developments ... 43
Table: Lead Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) . 43
Structural Trends ... 43
Table: China - Select Lead Mining Projects 44
Risks To Outlook 45
Zinc: Mining Under Pressure . 45
Latest Developments ... 45
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) . . 45
Structural Trends ... 45
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 48
China Risk Reward Index .. 48
Rewards ... 48
Industry Rewards ... 48
Country Rewards ... 48
Risks 48
Industry Risks 48
Country Risks 49
Asia - Risk/Reward Index .. 49
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 51
Regulatory Development .. 52
Trade And Investment Risk Analysis ... 52
Commodities Forecast . 56
Commodities Outlook ... 56
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts . . 56
Competitive Landscape 57
Majors Firms 58
Table: China - Key Financial Data For Select Listed Mining Companies . . 58
Company Profile 60
Jiangxi Copper 60
Table: Supply Chain Analysis 62
Table: Jiangxi Copper - Key Financial Data . . 63
Shandong Gold ... 64
Table: Supply Chain Analysis 66
China Shenhua Energy . 67
Table: Shenhua Energy - Supply Chain Analysis . 70
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Q2 2016 .. 71
Company Overview 72
Latest Financial Results .. 74
Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data . . 75
Regional Overview 76
Asia Mining: The Four Key Themes 76
Key Themes .. 76
Methodology .. 82
Industry Forecast Methodology 82
Sources 83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 84
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 85

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ref:plp2016

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