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Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 71 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:
We have marginally downgraded our short-term outlook for the Nigerian construction sector as continued uncertainty over the direction of the naira, monetary policy and oil prices sees private sector projects remain on hold. Infrastructure on the other hand will largely continue to see buoyant growth on the back of a expansionary 2016 federal budget, although power sector projects will be subject to similar headwinds as we are seeing in the residential and non-residential building sector.


Latest Updates And Structural Trends
- We marginally lowered our overall construction industry outlook for 2016 and 2017 forecasts to 7% and 10% y-o-y real growth respectively, largely due to the residential and non-residential sector underperforming. Over the long-term, Nigeria retains strong infrastructure fundamentals and over our 10-year forecast period we forecast average annual real growth of 10.2%.
- We expect the transport sector to outperform, given heavy Chinese involvement in financing and building major projects as well as a large focus on capital investment in the 2016 federal budget - increasing over
200% y-o-y.
- The residential and non-residential building sector has been hardest hit by the economic turmoil and in 2016 we forecast real growth of just 6.5% y-o-y - a notable slowdown after years of double-digit growth.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends .. 7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Nigeria 2016-2022) . 7
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Nigeria) . . 8
SWOT 9
Infrastructure SWOT .. 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) . . 11
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview .. 17
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 17
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) . 17
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview .. 18
Table: KEY PROJECTS: Transport . . 28
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook and Overview 29
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 29
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) . . 29
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities . . 35
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview . 36
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 36
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) . 36
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook And Overview . 37
Table: Key Projects: Construction And Social Infrastructure 43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 44
Nigeria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index .. 44
Rewards ... 44
Risks ... 45
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index - Stabilisation, But Tough Year In 2016 .. 46
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index, Q216 . . 51
Market Overview ... 52
Competitive Landscape . 52
Table: Equities 59
Company Profile 60
Julius Berger Nigeria Plc. . 60
Setraco Nigeria Limited 62
Methodology .. 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sector-Specific Methodology 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 69
Sector-Specific Methodology 70
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 71

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