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South Africa Telecommunications Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

BMI View: We continue to maintain our core forecast for the South African market and retain our positiveoutlook for 2016. The market has so far performed beyond our expectations, adding over 6mn subscribersin 9M15. Furthermore, the uptake of 3G and LTE services is in line with our recent revisions. We dohowever caution that with penetration rate inching towards 170%, there is a high likelihood of a significantnumber of inactive sims connections that have not been discounted. A major discounting by operators willlead us to revise our forecasts. Furthermore, we are carefully monitoring the competitive dynamics of theSouth African mobile market as we believe 2016 will be the year of major consolidation as fixed lineprovider Telkom South Africa looks to acquire major wireless provider Cell C and Vodacom looks toacquire ISP provider Neotel.

- The South African mobile market grew higher than forecasted in 9M15 as the market addedimpressive 6mn+ subscribers. We believe that the market will end our current forecast period, 2020with over 94mn subscribers.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Telecommunications Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates and Industry Developments 7
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2020) 15
Industry Risk Reward Index 17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 17
Table: Regional RRI Comparison, Q216 18
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index, Q2 2016 19
South Africa Industry Risk Reward Index 21
Market Overview 23
Market Drivers and Trends 23
Mobile 23
Wireline Voice and Broadband 32
Table: Telkom Fixed Telephony Access Lines ('000) 33
Table: Telkom Internet Subscriptions 34
Table: Recent Fibre Developments 35
Regulatory Development 36
Table: South Africa - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 36
Latest Developments 39
Table: National Broadband Policy Access Targets 41
Competitive Landscape 42
Table: Key Players 42
Operator Data 42
Table: Market Overview 2013-2015 42
Table: Vodacom 43
Table: MTN 45
Table: Cell C 47
Table: 8ta - Telkom South Africa 47
Table: Virgin Mobile 49
Company Profile 50
Cell C 50
MTN 54
Telkom 59
Vodacom 64
Demographic Forecast 68
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 71
Glossary 73
Table: Glossary Of Terms 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sources 77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 79

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