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Russia Consumer Electronics Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Russian consumer electronics device spending collapsed in 2015 as the economic crisis resultedin a sharp decline in consumer sentiment - and device affordability due to extensive rouble depreciationthat eroded consumer purchasing power. The market is expected to contract again in 2016 as economicconditions continue to be hostile, but there will be some let-up from the depths of the crisis in 2015. Afterthis sharp downturn there is pent-up device demand across the market, but we have adopted a cautiousoutlook for a rebound over the medium term based on the weak household income outlook, whileuncertainty around Russian international relations holds the prospect for further disruption. There is someupside potential to offset this, if the government can kick start the expansion of domestic electronicsmanufacturing, including components, that would go some way towards alleviating the erosion inaffordability. Our core scenario is for device spending to increase at a CAGR of 5.6% over 2016-2020 andto remain far below previous highs in value and volume terms even by 2020.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- Computer Hardware: USD5.4n in 2016 to USD6.4bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR)of 4.3%. Pent-up demand from depth of the economic crisis in 2015-16 has potential to see spendingbounce back from 2017, but a subdued economic outlook means purchasing power will remain below2013 levels even in 2020, and consequently we believe lower volumes and greater share for low-costbrands will remain characteristic of the segment.

- AV: USD3.7bn in 2016 to USD4.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 4.2%. TV set upgrades based on smart, Ultra-HD and OLED technologies - along with a deceleration in digital camera volume cannibalisation - willreturn the market to growth. Potential for strong performance in 2018 when Russia hosts the FIFA WorldCup, which could be a powerful trigger for TV set upgrades.- Handsets: USD5.0bn in 2016 to USD6.8bn in 2020, a CAGR of 7.9%. After the market stalled in 2015and 2016 there remains potential for first-time smartphone upgrade purchases to drive outperformance ofthe handset segment once the economic environment improves.

Table Of Contents

Russia Consumer Electronics Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates and Industry Developments 8
SWOT 9
Consumer Electronics Market 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (Russia 2014-2020) 16
Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index 17
Industry Risk/Reward Index 17
Table: Consumer Electronics Ratings Regional Breakdown, Q216 18
Table: Europe Risk/Rewards Index - Q2 2016 19
Market Overview 20
Recent Developments 20
Computers 20
Table: PC Sales (Russia 2014-2020) 20
AV 27
Table: AV Sales (Russia 2014-2020) 27
Mobile Handsets 32
Table: Mobile Communications (Russia 2014-2020) 32
Industry Trends And Developments 40
Regulatory Development 46
Table: IT Authorities 46
Competitive Landscape 50
International Companies 50
Table: Huawei Technologies 50
Table: Lenovo 51
Table: Foxconn 52
Local Companies 53
Table: Explay 53
Table: Yota Devices 54
Demographic Forecast 55
Demographic Outlook 55
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 56
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 56
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 57
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 57
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 58
Methodology 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Sector-Specific Methodology 61
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Sector-Specific Methodology 63
Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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