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Ukraine Food and Drink Industry Update Quarter 2 2012
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We believe that Ukraine has now entered recession and do not expect to see a recovery in 2013. We have
downgraded our real GDP forecast to -0.5%, from a previous forecast of 1.0%, underpinned by a weak
export base and currency instability. Additionally, Ukraine's GDP per capita is expected to remain one of
the lowest in Europe over the decade ahead. Without institutional and economic reform, Ukraine's current
economic growth model will prove unsustainable over the coming 10 years.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
• 2013 per capita food consumption = +9.0%; five-year forecast to 2017 = +49.4%
• 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales = +10.1%; five-year forecast to 2017 = +56.0%
• 2013 soft drinks value sales = +12.3%; five-year forecast to 2017 = +56.0%
• 2013 mass grocery retail = +11.9%; five-year forecast to 2017 = +64.2%
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