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Slovakia Power Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 52 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The medium term outlook for Slovakia's power sector is quite encouraging. With two newnuclear reactors set to come on stream in the next couple of years, there should be a 29% increase in totalgenerating capacity by the end of 2018, relative to our core forecast for the end of 2016. After that,generation is likely to plateau, given the absence of any significant new projects in the pipeline, a possiblemodernisation of the Vojany thermal station aside. Consumption should pick up from 2016, in a contextwhere it has been constrained by weak manufacturing demand, although strong consumer demand has beenproviding - and should continue to provide - support, with interest rates currently at (and likely to remainclose to) record lows.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Investments in nuclear power mean we expect this sector to drive overall growth in the Slovak powerindustry, with nuclear power generation forecast to increase from 14.0TWh in 2015 to 21.1TWh in 2025,while total generation will increase from 25.0TWh to 32.6TWh.

- Slovenské Elektrárne's (SE) work on the Mochovce Nuclear Power Plant is on course to result in reactor3 coming onstream in Q416 or Q117 while reactor 4 should be complete a year later. Total powergeneration in Slovakia is therefore expected to increase substantially over the next couple of years, to32.1TWh in 2018 (a rise of 29% over two years).

- Consumption should accelerate from 2016 onwards, though annual growth will remain below 2%, which,combined with the improving generating capacity, will ameliorate the overall shortfall.

- Italian power utility Enel in December 2018 concluded an agreement with Czech energy player EPH tosell SE, in a two-phase deal likely to total EUR750mn. However, the complex nature of the arrangement -which will not be completed until both new Mochovce reactors are online - could impair the strategicdirection of SE over the medium-term, especially given the added lack of full clarity over whether thestate or EPH will end up as the majority shareholder.

Table Of Contents

Slovakia Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Slovakia 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Slovakia Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Slovakia 2015-2020) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Slovakia 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Slovakia Power Forecast Scenario 11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2019) 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2020-2025) 20
Transmission and Distribution, Imports And Exports 21
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2020-2025) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2019) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovakia 2020-2025) 22
Industry Risk/Reward Index 23
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 23
Slovakia Power Risk/Reward Index 29
Rewards 29
Market Overview 31
Key Policies And Market Structure 31
Regulation And Competition 31
Table: Electricity Prices In EU Member States, As Of May 2012 33
Slovakia Power Projects Database 35
Table: Slovakia - Power Projects 35
Competitive Landscape 36
SE 37
SPP 37
ZSE 37
SSE 38
VSE 38
SEPS 38
CEZ 38
Company Profile 39
Slovak Electric 39
Regional Overview 42
Europe - CEE Power: Affordable Coal To Trump Renewables 42
Table: Turkey - Ambitious Renewables Targets 44
Glossary 46
Table: Glossary Of Terms 46
Methodology 47
Methodology And Sources 47
Industry Forecast Methodology 47
Sources 50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 52

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