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  4. > Argentina Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Argentina Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 23.3% to 2.65mn tonnes. The sharp decline in 2013/14 was dueto a dry summer followed by severe frosts that impacted key sugar-growing regions and, as a result, thesector will enjoy growth coming from a low base.

- Pork production growth to 2019/20: 20.7% to 573,300 tonnes. Over the long term, government effortsto reduce the proportion of beef in the local diet, in order to free up more for export, will lead to anincrease in pork production.

- Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 3.9% to 62.3mn tonnes. Farmers have been straining theirfields in recent years by continually planting soybeans, which will add to the incentive to turn to othercrops. With export taxes on corn and wheat now significantly reduced by the new government, this willamplify substitution away from soybeans.- Soybean consumption growth to 2019/20: 13.1% to 51.2mn tonnes. A key driver will be exportdemand for soybean oil (specifically from China) and soybean meal, which is an important livestockfeed. The conversion from raw soybean to finished processed products is contributing to our consumptionoutlook.- Corn production growth 2015/16 to 2019/20:6.6% to 28.8mn tonnes. We see a more favourable tradeoutlook for corn as export taxes and restrictions are reduced following the election of Mauricio Macri asArgentina's new president.- 2016 real GDP growth: -1.2% (down from 0.7% in 2015e).- 2016 consumer price inflation: 24.0% average (up from 17.0% in 2015).

Table Of Contents

Argentina Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Sugar Outlook 11
Table: Sugar - Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 14
Livestock Outlook 15
Table: Argentina - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 16
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 17
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 17
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 17
Soybean Outlook 18
Table: Soybean - Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 21
Dairy Outlook 22
Table: Argentina - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 26
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 26
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 26
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 27
Grains Outlook 28
Table: Argentina Grains - Production and Consumption Outlook 29
Table: Risks To Outlook 29
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 31
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 32
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 32
Commodities Price Analysis 33
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 33
Upstream Analysis 35
Americas GM Outlook 35
Americas Machinery Outlook 43
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 46
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 50
Downstream Analysis 56
Food 56
Latest Updates 56
Structural Trends 56
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 57
Table: Canned Food Value Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 57
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 59
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 63
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 64
Regional Overview 65
Table: TPP - Main Winners And Losers For Agriculture 70
Competitive Landscape 71
Table: Key Agribusiness Companies 71
Demographic Forecast 72
Demographic Outlook 72
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Argentina 1990-2025) 73
Table: Key Population Ratios (Argentina 1990-2025) 73
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Argentina 1990-2025) 74
Table: Population By Age Group (Argentina 1990-2025) 74
Table: Population By Age Group % (Argentina 1990-2025) 75
Methodology 77
Industry Forecast Methodology 77
Sector-Specific Methodology 78

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