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Mexico Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 69 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have made some minor forecast adjustments in our Q2 2016 Mexican agribusiness reportupdate. We retain our positive outlook for various segments of the industry till then end of our forecastperiod in 2020. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years but we foresee positivetrends in domestic production and consumption of the dairy sector, livestock sector and coffee segment. Wehold a subdued forecast for the grains market due to corn production volatility. Rising per capitadisposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion thatcompetitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains,livestock and sugar subsectors.

Key Forecasts

- We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 7.8% in 2015/16 to reach 23.5mn tonnes.Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Cornconsumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates of under 1% to 2020.

- We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork productionoutpacing poultry and beef and veal. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork whereashigher cost will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.

- The Mexican dairy sector will expand in terms of production in 2016 with domestic cheese demand andsupply outpacing growth in liquid milk and butter sectors.

- Rising per capital incomes and discretionary spending powers will boost food consumption in 2016 andbeyond, over the course of our forecast period.

Table Of Contents

Mexico Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Livestock Outlook 11
Table: Mexico Livestock Production, Consumption and Trade Outlook 12
Table: Risks to Outlook 13
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 14
Sugar Outlook 15
Table: Mexico - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks to Outlook 16
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 18
Coffee Outlook 18
Table: Mexico Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks to Outlook 19
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2019) 20
Dairy Outlook 20
Table: Mexico Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks to Outlook 22
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 23
Grains Outlook 23
Table: Mexico Production and Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks to Outlook 25
Table: Grain Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 27
Commodities Price Analysis 28
Global Commodities Strategy 28
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 28
Upstream Analysis 30
Americas GM Outlook 30
Americas Machinery Outlook 38
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 41
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 45
Downstream Analysis 52
Food 52
Confectionery 52
Prepared/Canned Food 53
Meat 53
Fish 54
Oils And Fats 54
Pasta 54
Dairy 54
Baked Products 54
Regional Overview 56
Table: TPP - Main Winners And Losers For Agriculture 60
Competitive Landscape 62
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 62
Demographic Forecast 63
Demographic Outlook 63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025) 64
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025) 64
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025) 65
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025) 65
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025) 66
Methodology 68
Industry Forecast Methodology 68
Sector-Specific Methodology 69

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