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Botswana Mining Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 53 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:
The expansion of Botswana's mining industry will be tempered by weakness in global diamond prices over the next few quarters, with the country's largest producer, Debswana, revealing plans to scale back production at two of its mines over the next three years. A sluggish diamond sector will be mitigated to an extent by rapid expansion in thermal coal mining as the government aims to become a net power exporter within the next few years. Growth in thermal coal output will pave the way for the gradual, but long-awaited, diversification of the country's mining sector.




Latest Updates & Structural Trends:
- We have revised our medium-term production forecasts for Botswana downwards this quarter, following the announcement that the country's leading producer, Debswana, will suspend operations at one of its
smaller mines, citing the recent collapse in global diamond prices. The company will also downsize output at another facility for a period of three years. With Debswana accounting for the bulk of the country's diamond output, we consequently forecast output to contract by 6.1% in 2016 to 21.8mn carats (mnct). Growth levels will be muted thereafter, growing by 1.4% a year on average through to 2020.
- Nevertheless, we continue to maintain the view that Botswana will become an increasingly important destination for global mining investment due to its stable political and economic environment. In December 2015, Canada's Lucara Diamond Corp announced plans for an expenditure of USD15-18mn on an additional large diamond recovery process at its Karowe mine. The company stated that the mine is estimated to treat between 2.2mn and 2.4mn tonnes of ore in 2016, producing around 350,000ct of diamonds.

Table Of Contents

Botswana Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Botswana Mining Industry Value Forecast (2015-2020) . 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast .. 10
Diamonds: Output To Recover In 2016 10
Latest Updates ... 10
Structural Trends ... 11
Table: Botswana - Main Diamond Projects 13
Table: Diamond Production (Botswana 2013-2020) 14
Coal: Increasingly Key To Energy Mix 15
Latest Developments ... 15
Structural Trends ... 16
Table: Botswana - Coal Deposits . . 17
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Botswana 2013-2020) . 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index . 19
Botswana Risk/Reward Index . 19
Rewards ... 19
Industry Rewards ... 19
Country Rewards ... 19
Risks 19
Industry Risks 19
Country Risks 20
Africa: Major Risks Remain ... 20
Key Takeaways .. 20
Latest Revisions . 21
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index . 23
Regulatory Development .. 24
Table: Africa - Mining Regulatory Outlook 25
Africa: Major Risks Remain ... 26
Key Takeaways .. 26
Latest Revisions . 27
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index . 28
Commodities Forecast . 29
Commodities Outlook ... 29
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts . . 29
Competitive Landscape 30
International and Domestic Key Players ... 30
Company Profile 32
Anglo American .. 32
Company Strategy .. 34
Latest Results 35
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data 36
Global Company Strategy - Norilsk Nickel ... 37
Company Overview 38
Company Strategy .. 39
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Supply Chain Analysis 41
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data 42
Regional Overview 43
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector . 48
Methodology .. 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Sources 51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 53

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