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Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 137 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Colombia's energy sector is nearing an inflection point. While the past decade saw strongproduction growth due to improvements in the business and security environment, we caution the countrywill experience downward pressure on oil and gas production over the next decade. The tendency towardsmaller finds, as well as continued pipeline attacks will decrease private investor interest in Colombia'sresources. Further, sustained lower oil prices have threatened the development of upstream anddownstream projects by national and international investors.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Colombia narrowly met its 2015 oil production target of 1.0mn bbl per day (b/d), averaging 1.005mn b/d,a 1.8% increase versus 2014. The 2015 target had been reduced from 1.03mn b/d in June. Natural gasproduction averaged over 6.0% lower in 2015 reflecting the suspension of the Riohacha gas field inAugust.

- Colombia's oil sector has reached a critical turning point as lower oil prices weaken upstream prospects.Although the government cut its own production target for the year to 944,000 barrels per day (b/d) onJanuary 25, we believe there is growing risk output will underperform. Continued downside weakness inbenchmark oil prices will render many existing projects uneconomic and undermine upstreamdevelopment in 2016.

- Following its credit downgrade on January 18, Ecopetrol announced a series of cost-cutting actions inFebruary with hopes of saving USD471mn. These include the sale of non-core assets, a 10% reduction ofits workforce and a freeze in operational expenditures at 50% of 2015 levels. This was followed by aUSD300mn loan from Bancolombia on February 23.

- The modernised Refineria de Cartagena SA (Reficar) is expected to reach full capacity in March 2016.This will add 85,000 b/d of downstream capacity which will service growing domestic demand over thenext several years. Although reports surfaced in February regarding USD4.0bn in cost overruns, theincrease in downstream capacity will support growing domestic demand.

Table Of Contents

Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 16
Table: Colombia - Key Upstream Projects 16
Upstream Production - Oil 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2014-2019) 29
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2020-2025) 29
Upstream Production - Gas 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2020-2025) 34
Refining 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2020-2025) 37
Refined Fuels Consumption 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019) 40
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025) 40
Gas Consumption 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019) 43
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025) 43
Trade - Oil 44
Crude Oil 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2020) 46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025) 46
Refined Products 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019) 48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025) 48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends: 48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019) 52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025) 52
Industry Risk Reward Index 53
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 53
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 53
Composite RRI: Sector Shifts Continue To Take Shape 54
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom 55
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 56
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics 58
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 60
Colombia Risk/Reward Index 61
Colombia Upstream Index - Overview 61
Colombia Upstream Index - Rewards 61
Colombia Upstream Index - Risks 62
Colombia Downstream Index - Overview 62
Market Overview 64
Colombia Energy Market Overview 64
Overview/State Role 64
Licensing And Regulation 65
Table: Royalty Rates 66
International Energy Relations 69
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 71
Refineries 71
Table: Refineries In Colombia 71
Service Stations 73
Oil Terminals/Ports 73
Oil Pipelines 73
LNG Terminals 77
Gas Pipelines 78
Competitive Landscape 79
Competitive Landscape Summary 79
Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil and Gas Sector 80
Company Profile 81
Chevron 81
Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Ecopetrol) 85
ExxonMobil Colombia 93
Occidental 96
Pacific Exploration and Production 100
Perenco 104
Sinochem 106
Other Summaries 109
Regional Overview 119
Latin America Overview 119
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2013-2024 128
Glossary 130
Table: Glossary Of Terms 130
Methodology 132
Industry Forecast Methodology 132
Source 134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 134
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 136
Table: Weighting 137

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