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  5. > Iran Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Iran Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 47 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The removal of almost all sanctions on Iran's economy in January will herald a new era for thecountry. In terms of agriculture, the return of economic growth will have the most rapid and direct impacton consumption. Production and investment in the supply chain will also benefit, but over the longer term.Therefore, production expansion will be slower than consumption growth in the coming years and Iran willremain a large and growing importer of key commodities. The lifting of sanctions will also lead to anormalisation of trade flows, which will encompass a rise in imports and the re-diversification of suppliers.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 17.0% to 15.4mn tonnes. Wheat yields are expected to improveowing to the modernisation of technology, including hardier grains variants, greater access to relevantinputs and a larger area of the country benefiting from new irrigation facilities.

- Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 27.6% to 3.1mn tonnes. Sugar demand will be mainly driven bypopulation growth and the improved macroeconomic conditions following the lifting of sanctions from2016.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 15.2% to 957,000 tonnes. Growth will be driven by domesticdemand and the effects of increased investment.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD69.1bn in 2016 (up 6.1% compared with 2015, growthforecast to average 3.6% annually between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: 2.8% (up from 0.4% expected in 2015; predicted to average 4.0% from 2016 to2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 11.0% y-o-y (up from 15.0% in 2015; predicted to average 9.4% y-o-yfrom 2016 to 2020).

Table Of Contents

Iran Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: Iran - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Iran - Risks To Grains Outlook 13
Table: Grains Production And Consumption (IRAN 2013-2020) 16
Rice Outlook 17
Table: Iran - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Iran - Risks To Rice Outlook 18
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Iran 2012-2020) 20
Sugar Outlook 21
Table: Iran - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Iran - Risks To Sugar Outlook 21
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Iran 2013-2020) 24
Dairy Outlook 25
Table: Iran - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 25
Table: Iran - Risks To Dairy Outlook 25
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Iran 2012-2020) 28
Livestock Outlook 29
Table: Iran - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 29
Table: Iran - Risks To Livestock Outlook 30
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Iran 2012-2020) 32
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Iran 2012-2020) 33
Featured Analysis 34
Removal Of Sanctions To Revive Food Imports 34
Table: Iran Agricultural Production and Consumption (2013-2020) 38
Commodities Price Analysis 39
Global Commodities Strategy 39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 39
Demographic Forecast 41
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025) 42
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025) 42
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025) 43
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025) 43
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025) 44
Methodology 46
Industry Forecast Methodology 46
Sector-Specific Methodology 47

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