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United States Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Corn and soybean production will decline year-on-year in the upcoming 2016/17 season, yetwill still count among the largest crops in US agricultural history. Livestock will see some mildimprovement in production growth in 2015/16, mainly owing to the poultry and beef sectors. Over the longterm, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex and we see the strongestproduction growth potential for soybean among the grains complex. We believe grains production willstagnate overall due to a lower planted area on the back of lower prices.

Key Trends

- Beef production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 8.2% to 12.35mn tonnes. Production will improve overour forecast period due to heavier animal weights and as the sector's rebuilding phase is largely complete.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 9.3% to 23.34mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largestpoultry exporter, behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emergingmarkets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.

- Corn production growth to 2019/20: 3.3% to 373.2mn tonnes. Corn production growth will slow overthe next five years as opportunities to increase yields (such as through the adoption of geneticallymodified seeds) are waning.

- Soybean production growth to 2019/20: -1.4% to 104.8mn tonnes. We have revised down our soybeanproduction growth forecasts as low prices will lead to reduced growth in plantings, while yields willsuffer due to reduced input usage.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 2.2% y-o-y, down from 2.4% in 2015.

Table Of Contents

United States Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: United States - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: United States - Barley, Corn and Wheat Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 14
Dairy Outlook 15
Latest Updates 15
Table: United States - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: United States - Dairy Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 18
Soybean Outlook 19
Latest Updates 19
Table: United States - Soybean Production and Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 20
Table: United States - Soybean Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 21
Sugar Outlook 22
Latest Updates 22
Table: United States - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 22
Structural Trends 23
Table: United States - Sugar Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 24
Livestock Outlook 25
Latest Updates 25
Table: United States - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 25
Table: Risks To Outlook 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: United States - Beef, Pork and Poultry Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 29
Cotton Outlook 30
Latest Updates 30
Table: United States - Cotton Production and Consumption Outlook 30
Table: Risks To Outlook 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: United States - Cotton Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 34
Commodities Price Analysis 35
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 35
Upstream Analysis 37
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 37
Americas Machinery Outlook 43
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 46
Americas GM Outlook 50
Downstream Analysis 59
Food 59
Food Consumption 59
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (United States 2012-2019) 60
Confectionery 60
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (United States 2012-2019) 61
Dairy 61
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (United States 2014-2019) 62
Regional Overview 63
Table: TPP - Main Winners And Losers For Agriculture 68
Competitive Landscape 69
Table: United States Agribusiness Competitive Landscape 69
Demographic Forecast 70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United States 1990-2025) 71
Table: Key Population Ratios (United States 1990-2025) 71
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (United States 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group (United States 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group % (United States 1990-2025) 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sector-Specific Methodology 76

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