United States Agribusiness Industry Update Quarter 2 2012

United States Agribusiness Industry Update Quarter 2 2012 Add to your bookmarks!

$ 1 088 - April 2013 - by Business Monitor International - 144

Summary

Table of Contents

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Data Series

Industry

Cereal Production

Country

United States

Keywords

Corn Product
Corn
Oilseed

Companies

Prepared Foods Inc.

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: With La Niña no longer a concern, we expect a big rebound in US grain production for the
2013/14 season, led by a significant increase in corn production as prices have remained high and soil
conditions have improved. Unlike grains, we believe cotton production in 2013/14 will decline largely due
to a reduced planted area. We have revised down our long-term forecasts for both corn and soybean by
12% and 9% respectively, as the area dedicated to these grains is already at record highs, and beyond the
current recovery we see little potential for sustained increases in yields over the long term. Within the
livestock sector, we believe production growth will be slow in the short term as the industry recovers from
high grain prices and poor soil conditions. Over the longer term, we favour the poultry sector due to price
competitiveness and changing dietary trends away from red meat.
Key Trends
• Soybean production growth to 2016/17: 14.2% to 94.8mn tonnes. This is mainly owing to the increase
in poultry production over the long term. However, we have revised our long-term figures down as we do
not see continued increases in the area dedicated to soybean given our view of lower average prices in the
medium term.
• Corn consumption growth to 2017: 10.1% to 307.1mn tonnes. This will be driven by increases in
ethanol production and an increase in feed use in the later years of our forecast period as the livestock
sector picks up.
• Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 20.1% to 23.1mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largest
poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging
markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.
• 2013 real GDP growth: 2.1% year-on-year, down from 2.2% in 2012; predicted to average 2.4% from
2012 until 2017.
• Consumer price inflation: 2.1% ave in 2013, same as 2012.

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Business Environment 10
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 19
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 19
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 19
Dairy Outlook 20
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 21
Table: United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 22
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 22
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 27
Table: United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 28
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 28
Soybean Outlook 28
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 30
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 34
Sugar Outlook 34
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 35
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 39
Livestock Outlook 40
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 41
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 41
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 42
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 46
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 47
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 47
Cotton Outlook 48
Table: United States Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 49
Table: United States Cotton Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 56
Commodities Price Analysis 57
Monthly Softs Strategy 57
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 66
Table: BMI COMMODITY STRATEGY 67
Monthly Grains Strategy 67
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 76
Table: BMI Strategy Table 77
Upstream Analysis 78
Americas GM Outlook 78
Americas Machinery Outlook 83
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 88
Downstream Analysis 95
Food 95
Food Consumption 95
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2017 95
Confectionery 96
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 96
Canned Food 97
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 97
Dairy 97
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 98
Drink 99
Alcoholic Drinks 99
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2012-2017 102
Soft Drinks 102
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2012-2017 103
Hot Drinks 103
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2012-2017 104
Mass Grocery Retail 104
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 105
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type 106
Competitive Landscape 107
Table: Agribusiness Competitive Landscape 107
Company Profile 108
Tyson Foods 108
Table: Tyson Foods Financial Data (US$mn) 117
Smithfield Foods 118
Table: Financial Highlights 126
Monsanto Incorporated 128
Table: Monsanto Financial Results (US$mn) 137
Demographic Forecast 138
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 139
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 140
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 141
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 141
Methodology 142

Corn in United States

United States Corn Consumption, `000 Tonnes, % Growth Y-o-y

$ 250
Industry data
January 2013

Yearly, From 2003 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA/BMI Calculation

Industries : Cereal Production
Countries : United States

United States Corn Consumption, Kg Per Capita

$ 250
Industry data
January 2013

Yearly, From 2002 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA/BMI Calculation

Industries : Cereal Production
Countries : United States

United States Corn Consumption, `000 Tonnes

$ 250
Industry data
January 2013

Yearly, From 2002 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA

Industries : Cereal Production
Countries : United States

Cereal Production in United States

United States Wheat Consumption, `000 Tonnes, % Growth Y-o-y

$ 250
Industry data
January 2013

Yearly, From 1999 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA/BMI Calculation

Industries : Cereal Production
Countries : United States

United States Wheat Production, `000 Tonnes

$ 250
Industry data
January 2013

Yearly, From 1998 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA

Industries : Cereal Production
Countries : United States

United States Wheat Production, `000 Tonnes, % Growth Y-o-y

$ 250
Industry data
January 2013

Yearly, From 1999 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA/BMI Calculation

Industries : Cereal Production
Countries : United States

United States Barley Consumption, `000 Tonnes

$ 250
Industry data
January 2013

Yearly, From 1998 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA

Industries : Cereal Production
Countries : United States

United States Wheat Consumption, `000 Tonnes

$ 250
Industry data
January 2013

Yearly, From 1998 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: USDA

Industries : Cereal Production
Countries : United States

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