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Kazakhstan Power Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 51 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: This quarter we have extended our forecasts to 2025. This notwithstanding, our view on theKazakhstan's power market remains largely unvaried. We continue to expect healthy growth inKazakhstan's power sector over BMI's 10-year forecast period to 2025, in terms of generation andconsumption. Although coal will continue to maintain its dominance over our ten-year forecast period to2025,, non-hydro renewables will grow rapidly, with a slew of foreign-financed wind and solar projects inthe pipeline. The government also plans to restart the exploitation of nuclear energy, helped byKazakhstan's vast uranium wealth. Power production will comfortably meet demand, with Kazakhstan'sdependence on energy imports decreasing over our forecast period.

- We expect the Kazakh solar power sector to register limited growth over the next five years, as a result ofthe sporadic completion of only a small number of solar power projects. This will be in large part theresult of investment prospects in the sector being undermined by uncertainty over the country's economicoutlook and Kazakhstan's challenging business environment.

- Kazakhstan remains committed in developing its first nuclear power plant. In October 2015, Kazakhstan'sVice-Minister of Energy Bakhytzhan Dzhaksaliyev said Kazakhstan will decide the location and strategicpartner for its first nuclear power station in the following two to three years.

- In October 2015, Kazakhstan announced that, 65 of the largest Kazakh state-controlled companies in theoil and gas, transportation, energy and nuclear sectors, including Samruk Energo will be privatised via anIPO between 2016 and 2020. The decision to sell a stake in the state-controlled energy companies wasprecipitated by both political and economic factors: the country's export-driven, hydrocarbon-basedeconomy suffered greatly amid crashing commodities prices, and mismanagement of its currencyexacerbated these problems further.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Kazakhstan Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2015-2020) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 10
Table: Kazakhstan Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 12
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 14
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 21
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 21
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 24
Kazakhstan Power Risk/Reward Index 30
Rewards 30
Risks 30
Market Overview 32
Key Policies And Market Structure 32
Regulation and Competition 32
Pricing 33
Kazakhstan Power Projects Database 35
Table: Kazakhstan Power - Top 10 Projects By Capacity 35
Competitive Landscape 36
Samruk-Energo 36
KEGOC 36
AES 37
Company Profile 38
Samruk-Energo 38
Regional Overview 41
Europe - CEE Power: Affordable Coal To Trump Renewables 41
Table: Turkey - Ambitious Renewables Targets 43
Glossary 45
Table: Glossary Of Terms 45
Methodology 46
Methodology And Sources 46
Industry Forecast Methodology 46
Sources 49
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 49
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 50
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 51

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