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Turkey Power Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 57 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We continue to expect Turkey to remain the most attractive power market in the CEE regionthis quarter. We foresee power demand in Turkey to be robust over the next decade, given the high levels ofinvestment being channelled into its power sector, the country's capacity expansion plans and its improvingeconomic outlook. There is also considerable political backing for power sector expansion as thegovernment continues to strive for greater energy security and to lower the country's heavy reliance onimports of natural gas through expanding domestic capacity - with renewables and domestically sourcedcoal leading the way. Yet, while the outlook is bright, the development of Turkey's power sector iscomplicated by the county's precarious economic and political position.

Key Trends And Developments

-We expect thermal generation to dominate the electricity generation mix to the end of our forecast period.While coal- and gas-fired will grow in absolute terms, we expect both to lose their share of generation tohydropower and non-renewables (and potentially nuclear). By 2024 we expect gas to account for 40.37%of total electricity generation (as opposed to 41.75% in 2015), coal to account for 24.81%, hydropower toaccount for 22.06% and non-hydro renewables to generate 12.08% of all electricity.

Table Of Contents

Turkey Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Turkey 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Turkey Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Turkey Power Forecast Scenario 12
Privatisation Process Gaining Traction 13
A Combustible Mix 14
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 14
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 16
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 19
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 22
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 25
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 27
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 27
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 28
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
Regional Risk Reward Index 29
Turkey Power Risk/Reward Index 35
Rewards 35
Risks 35
Market Overview 37
Key Policies And Market Structure 37
Regulation And Competition 37
Sustainable Energy Policies 39
Pricing 41
Turkey Power Projects Database 42
Table: Major Projects - Power 42
Competitive Landscape 45
Regional Overview 47
Europe - CEE Power: Affordable Coal To Trump Renewables 47
Table: Turkey - Ambitious Renewables Targets 49
Glossary 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms 51
Methodology 52
Methodology And Sources 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Sources 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57

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