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Ukraine Power Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 50 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Longer term, production and consumption will rise as the economy starts to recover and processes ofintegration with the EU bring about a partial liberalization of the power sector and investment fromabroad. This will create opportunities for investment in Ukraine's power sector. However, multiplebarriers stand in the way of developing the sector, including corruption, vested interests and the fractiouspolitical environment, that electricity production will fall far short of Ukraine's potential.

- Ukraine's natural gas imports approximately halved over the course of January-February 2016 (versus thesame period in the previous year), with the entirety of them coming from the European Union rather thanRussia. The difficult import outlook for natural gas suggests downside risks to our forecast for gas-firedgeneration to stabilise in 2016. The short-term outlook for Ukraine's coal-fired power sector is poor dueto the ongoing conflict in Ukraine's main coal-producing regions in the east of the country. Around twothirdsof Ukraine's mines have ceased activity, forcing Ukraine to import coal to cover its needs.

- As a result of the uncertainty surround Ukraine's long-term energy supply, the national energy companyUkrenergo has imposed rolling blackouts and suspended exports to Belarus and Russian-occupiedCrimea. Ukraine has also started to import electricity from Russia, but this is vulnerable to politicalconditions, specifically Russia's demand that Ukraine continues supplying electricity to the rebel-heldDonbass region.

- In line with an agreement with the IMF, prices increased 40% in March 2015 and will continue risinguntil 2017. This follows a sharp increase in wholesale prices in 2014 (from UAH730 to UAH830 perMWh) due to problems in domestic generation.

- Consumption is falling as swathes of south-eastern Ukraine are left without electricity following damageto power lines and stations. Instability has also compromised the steel industry, the single main consumerof electricity, exacerbating an existing dip in global demand for steel, which has already been loweringproduction.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Ukraine 2015-2021) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Ukraine Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Ukraine 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Ukraine 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Ukraine Power Forecast Scenario 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 20
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 23
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 25
Ukraine Power Risk/Reward Index 31
Rewards 31
Risks 31
Market Overview 33
Key Policies And Market Structure 33
Ukraine - Ukraine Power Projects Database 35
Table: Largest Projects By Capacity 36
Competitive Landscape 38
Ukrenergo 39
AES 39
Regional Overview 40
Europe - CEE Power: Affordable Coal To Trump Renewables 40
Table: Turkey - Ambitious Renewables Targets 42
Glossary 44
Table: Glossary Of Terms 44
Methodology 45
Methodology And Sources 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 48
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 48
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 49
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 50

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