EpiCast Report: Postherpetic Neuralgia - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

Summary

Postherpetic Neuralgia (PHN) is one of the most common complications of herpes zoster infection in elderly persons ages 60 years and older, worldwide. The main symptom of PHN is severe pain and allodynia (pain that results from a non-injurious stimulus to the skin). PHN is associated with a significant loss of activity levels and a reduced quality of life, particularly in the elderly. The strongest established risk factor for PHN is advancing age. Other possible risk factors for PHN include severity of acute herpes zoster pain, extent of rash, and duration of prodromal pain.

The number of incident cases of PHN in the 7MM will increase by 20.22% over the next decade, from 241,808 cases in 2012, to 290,694 cases in 2022. Age- and sex-specific incidence data for PHN and herpes zoster, as well as data for the proportion of herpes zoster patients developing PHN in the 7MM, were obtained or calculated from nationally-representative studies in each country to forecast the incident cases of PHN. To maintain a uniform methodology across the markets, GlobalData epidemiologists only used studies that defined PHN as pain persistent for three or more months.

Currently, there is no absolute preventative therapy for PHN. However, a vaccine is available to help prevent a herpes zoster infection; in turn, this vaccine helps reduce the incidence of PHN to an extent because PHN is the sequela of herpes zoster. The considerable increase in the aging population worldwide, coupled with the high risk for developing PHN in elderly herpes zoster patients are expected to impose a considerable burden on healthcare in the 7MM in future years.

Scope

- The Postherpetic Neuralgia EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of postherpetic neuralgia in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast (2012–2022) of the incident cases of postherpetic neuralgia segmented by age (in five-year increments beginning at age 50 and ending at age =85 years) and sex in the 7MM.
- The postherpetic neuralgia epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 6MM.

Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global postherpetic neuralgia market.

- Quantify patient populations in the global postherpetic neuralgia market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for postherpetic neuralgia therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 6
2 Introduction 7
2.1 Catalyst 7
3 Epidemiology 8
3.1 Disease Overview 8
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 9
3.2.1 Elderly herpes zoster patients are almost 20 times more likely to develop PHN 9
3.2.2 Herpes zoster vaccine reduces the morbidity of herpes zoster and PHN 11
3.3 Global Trends 11
3.3.1 US 12
3.3.2 France 13
3.3.3 Germany 14
3.3.4 Italy 14
3.3.5 Spain 15
3.3.6 UK 16
3.3.7 Japan 17
3.4 Forecast Metodology 17
3.4.1 Sources Used 19
3.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 22
3.4.3 Sources Not Used 26
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast of Postherpetic Neuralgia (2012-2022) 27
3.5.1 Incident Cases of PHN 27
3.5.2 Age-Specific Incident Cases of PHN 28
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Incident Cases of PHN 30
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Incidence of PHN 32
3.6 Discussion 33
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 33
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 34
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 35
4 Appendix 37
4.1 Bibliography 37
4.2 About the Authors 40
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 40
4.2.2 Reviewers 40
4.2.3 Franka des Vignes, PhD, Global Director of Epidemiology and Health Policy 42
4.2.4 Bonnie Bain, PhD, Global Head of Healthcare 42
4.3 About GlobalData 43
4.4 About EpiCast 43
4.5 Disclaimer 44



List of Tables

Table 1: 7MM, Sources of PHN Incidence Data 18
Table 2: 7MM, Incident Cases of PHN, Ages ?50 Years, Men and Women, N, 2012-2022 27
Table 3: 7MM, Incident Cases of PHN, by Age, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2012 29
Table 4: 7MM, Incident Cases of PHN, by Sex, Ages ?50 Years, N (Row %), 2012 31



List of Figures

Figure 1: 7MM, Incident Cases of PHN, Ages ?50 Years, Men and Women, N, 2012-2022 28
Figure 2: 7MM, Incident Cases of PHN, by Age, Men and Women, N, 2012 30
Figure 3: 7MM, Incident Cases of PHN, by Sex, Ages ?50 Years, N, 2012 31
Figure 4: 7MM, Age-Standardized Incidence of PHN (per 1,000 Population), Ages ?50 Years, Men and Women, 2012 33

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