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Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Rolling Stock Market

  • October 2013
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 98 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

Enormous Order Volumes bolstered by Robust Growth Strategy of Chinese Railways and OEMs

The study provides an outlook of growth opportunities in the Chinese rolling stock market. It discusses key trends, market drivers, opportunities, regional influences, and market dynamics. It also provides market size for rolling stock in the mainline, urban rail, and high-speed rail segments. Key trends and variables for growth have been identified and covered. Forecasts for unit shipment of rolling stock in the three segments, and strategic conclusions have also been provided.

Executive Summary—Key Findings

Chinese investment in rail is slowing down as major infrastructure projects reach completion

1. In 2012, China invested RMB 400.00 billion ($ billion) in the construction of railway infrastructure and in kilometers of fresh train lines.
2. The investment in 2012 witnessed an annual decline of approximately percent over 2011 (RMB billion/$ billion). In 2010, China invested RMB billion (~$ billion) in its railways.
3. Mounting rail debt levels and safety concerns, following the July 2011 Wenzhou train crash, are largely considered the reasons behind reduced rail infrastructure spending in 2012.
4. Mounting rail debt levels and safety concerns, following the July 2011 Wenzhou train crash, are largely considered the reasons behind reduced rail infrastructure spending in 2012.
5. The quick uptake for the metro and light rail modes in China is expected to further strengthen as the growing Chinese middle class demand lower congestion and pollution levels.
6. Western China finds a special place of interest in the rail investment plans ( kilometers of rail projected by 2016).
7. Other infrastructure development plans (e.g., ports) and an uncertain global economy may block finances from flowing into rail investment.

Executive Summary—Overview of Rolling Stock in China

As China improves electrification, electric locomotives are likely to increase their presence to X percent by 2020. X deliveries of HSR train sets and Xmetro train sets to meet ambitious Chinese rail program.
• The number of electric locomotives has been increasing steadily since 2001.
• The demand for high-speed rail is expected to decline after 2020 as all projects come to a close.
• There is enormous potential for metro and light rail rolling stock as China shifts focus to developing urban rail networks for its cities.

Executive Summary—Explosive Growth of Urban Rail in China

A total of X lines under construction, and over X lines in planning and approval phases

2012
There used to be a negative policy for private vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai
Beijing: Adopted an adjustable working-hour system
Shanghai: Implemented car license plate auction system

2020
There is strict control over the consumption and usage of private vehicles in mega cities. Well-connected rail systems are expected to transport more than half the daily commuting traffic.

Which are the leading rolling stock suppliers in the metro, mainline, and HSR segments in China?
Where are the new opportunities in rolling stock for rail?
What is the market share of the rolling stock in rail applications? Which is the market leader in each rolling stock segment in China?
What is the business environment of the Chinese rolling stock market? What are its market dynamics?

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