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Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update 2013–2018

  • September 2013
  • -
  • Analysys Mason
  • -
  • 46 pages

Summary

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Competition will intensify and provide significant dynamism to the telecoms market in Latin America. Improving mobile handset data positioning will be crucial to stimulating revenue growth during the next 5 years. This report evaluates, explains and quantifies the impact of recent market developments on our comprehensive forecasts for Latin America.

About this report

• This report provides:
- an interim update of our 5-year forecast of more than 60 mobile and fixed KPIs for the Latin America (LATAM) region as a whole and for key countries, which was previously published in February 2013
- an extension of the forecast horizon to 2018
- an explanation of the significant changes to our previous forecasts.

• Upward or downward revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:
- market developments – some drivers were stronger or weaker than previously expected, based on the latest reported operator and regulator data
- changes to the macroeconomic outlook, competitive and regulatory environment
- changes to historical data because of newly available information, including from operators’ and regulators’ reports.

Geographical coverage

• Regions modelled:
- Latin America

• Countries modelled individually
- Argentina
- Brazil
- Chile
- Colombia
- Mexico
- Peru
- Venezuela

Major KPIs

• Connections
- Mobile
Handset, mobile broadband, M2M2
Prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G
Smartphone, non-smartphone
- Fixed
Voice, broadband, IPTV2, dial-up
Narrowband voice, VoBB
DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

• Voice traffic
- Fixed and mobile
Outgoing minutes, MoU

• Revenue
- Mobile
Service, retail
Prepaid, contract
Handset, mobile broadband, M2M2
Handset voice, messaging, data
- Fixed
Service, retail
Voice, broadband, IPTV2, dial-up, BNS
DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

• ARPU
- Mobile
SIMs, handset
Prepaid, contract
Handset voice, data

Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will lead the growth, driven by increasing smartphone penetration, Internet demand and data usage

Telecoms retail revenue will grow by USD29 billion between 2012 and 2018. Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will be the main contributors – they will generate about 45% and 30% of the revenue growth respectively.

Smartphone demand continues to be strong in LATAM (72% growth in 2012). Handset subsidies, cheaper devices and data package offerings will become increasingly important to drive future growth and reach critical data revenue mass, because new adopters will have less available income than established subscribers.

Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela have launched LTE services. We expect Brazil to have the highest take-up in the region by 2014, as LTE roll-out plans run ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2014 schedule.

Fixed broadband penetration growth in 2012 (3 percentage points) was as strong as in 2011 because operators are continuing to invest in network quality and speed, competition from cable and FTTH/B is stimulating demand, and bundles with pay TV and fixed voice are becoming common.

Fixed broadband penetration is low in LATAM (33% of households in 2012), compared with developed countries, and this – along with rising GDP per capita – leaves room for further growth. Pay TV is very popular in the region and acts as a driver for fixed broadband adoption.

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