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  4. > Pay-TV and OTT video services in Central and Eastern Europe: forecasts and analysis 2013–2018

The pay-TV market is evolving, and the boundaries between pay-TV services and those that are free to air (FTA are increasingly blurring. Our forecasts take a holistic view of the market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE, and include paid-for OTT video as well as traditional pay-TV services.

About this report

The pay-TV market is evolving, and boundaries between pay- and free-to-air (FTA) TV services are increasingly blurred. Our forecasts take a holistic view of the market, including paid-for over-the-top (OTT) video as well as traditional pay-TV services.

This Report provides:
• historical and forecast metrics from 2010 to 2018 (see Figure 1)
• an overview of the key trends and drivers in the market
• top-level overviews of the key countries in the region (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey)
• recommendations for traditional pay-TV operators and content owners/aggregators.
• These forecasts integrate our view on traditional and a more-granular view of OTT video services in Central and Eastern Europe into a single report for the first time.

Countries and regions
The Baltics, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and ‘the rest of Central and Eastern Europe’

Key metrics
Households, primary services, secondary services, spend, ASPS

Platforms
Analogue cable, digital cable, IPTV, pay DTT, pay analogue terrestrial, satellite (DTH), OTT video

Pay-TV spend segments
Linear programming, pay per view (PPV)/video on demand (VoD).
For OTT video services, we also include transactional VoD (TVoD) and subscription VoD (SVoD).

Device categories for OTT video services to the TV set
Games consoles, smart TV sets, Blu-ray and DVD players, media streamers

Our forecasts cover both primary and secondary pay-TV services

Our forecasts cover both primary and secondary pay-TV services because the average Central and Eastern European household owns more than one TV set.
• We define the primary pay-TV service as the one that is delivered to the primary, or main, TV set, typically in the sitting room. We also refer to these services as ‘pay-TV households’ within this report, because these are the services used to measure household pay-TV penetration rates.
• Secondary pay-TV services are the ones delivered to secondary, or additional, TV sets within the home, such as one in a child’s bedroom. Secondary services include:
- additional pay-TV services from a different provider – for example, a household may use satellite as its primary pay-TV service, but may also receive IPTV on another TV set, having subscribed to a multi-play bundle from their fixed broadband provider
- multi-room services from the same provider.

The term ‘pay-TV services’ includes all primary pay-TV services, as well as all the additional pay-TV services delivered to secondary TV sets. It excludes multi-room services.

Table Of Contents

Pay-TV and OTT video services in Central and Eastern Europe: forecasts and analysis 2013-2018
Contents

6.Executive summary
7.Executive summary: Only 1% of households in Central and Eastern Europe will use OTT video services as their primary pay-TV service in 2018
8.Executive summary: OTT video will account for 43% of secondary pay-TV services in 2018
9.Executive summary: The popularity of PC-based gaming in the region reduces the appeal of games consoles to deliver OTT video services

10.Recommendations
11.Recommendations [1]
12.Recommendations [2]
13.Recommendations [3]

14.Central and Eastern European forecast
15.Our forecasts cover both primary and secondary pay-TV services
16.The number of pay-TV households in Central and Eastern Europe will increase by a healthy 12% between 2013 and 2018
17.OTT video services will account for just over half of the increase in pay-TV services in Central and Eastern Europe during the forecast period
18.OTT video services will account for 43% of secondary pay-TV services by 2018, as pay-TV operator multi-room services decline
19.Increased pay-TV spend in the region will primarily be driven by the transition to digital cable
20.The increase in pay-TV ASPS will be driven by a wider choice of linear content and the growing availability of on-demand content
21.ASPS is subject to conflicting pressures, which will make it increasingly challenging for pay-TV operators to monetise their subscriber base
22.Media streamers will continue to be the most prevalent device for accessing OTT video services on the TV in Central and Eastern Europe
23.OTT video services on the TV set will be used as a primary pay-TV service by only 1% of households in Central and Eastern Europe in 2018
24.In Central and Eastern Europe, spend on SVoD services will exceed spend on TVOD services as soon as 2014

25.Country-specific forecasts
26.Czech Republic: growth in spend will lag behind the increased number of pay-TV households because of the rising share of low-cost services
27.Czech Republic: we expect 3.5% of FTA TV households to use OTT video services as a primary pay-TV service in 2018
28.Hungary: cable continues to dominate in spite of increasing competition from other platforms
29.Hungary: OTT video services are late to emerge
30.Poland: IPTV and pay-DTT will drive growth in traditional pay-TV services
31.Poland: leading OTT video sites offer packages of channels similar to those offered by traditional pay-TV operators
32.Russia: satellite will overtake cable during the forecast period to become the leading pay-TV platform
33.Russia: we expect that more than a fifth of OTT video services will be used as a primary pay-TV service because of low pay-TV penetration rates
34.Turkey: satellite will consolidate its position as the dominant pay-TV platform
35.Turkey: TTNet, the incumbent ISP, is a key player in the OTT video market

36.Market definition
37.Regional breakdown used in this report
38.Measures provided in the data annex
39.Definitions used in this report

40.About the author and Analysys Mason
41.About the author
42.About Analysys Mason
43.Research from Analysys Mason
44.Consulting from Analysys Mason



List of figures

Figure 1: Key metrics and categories featured in this forecast
Figure 2: Primary pay-TV services by platform, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013 and 2018
Figure 3: Secondary pay-TV services by platform, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013 and 2018
Figure 4: OTT video services to the TV set, by type of device, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 5: Types of pay-TV services covered within this report
Figure 6: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 7: Pay-TV services, by platform, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 8: Secondary pay-TV services, by platform, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 9: Pay-TV spend, by platform, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 10: Average spend per subscriber (ASPS) for traditional pay-TV services, by linear programming and on-demand content, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 11: Pressures on ASPS for pay-TV services
Figure 12: OTT video services to the TV set, by type of device, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 13: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 14: Spend on OTT video services to the TV set, by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2018
Figure 15: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Czech Republic, 2013-2018
Figure 16: Pay-TV spend by platform, Czech Republic, 2013-2018
Figure 17: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, Czech Republic, 2013-2018
Figure 18: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Hungary, 2013-2018
Figure 19: Pay-TV spend by platform, Hungary, 2013-2018
Figure 20: OTT video services to the TV set , by primary and secondary, Hungary, 2013-2018
Figure 21: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Poland, 2013-2018
Figure 22: Pay-TV spend by platform, Poland, 2013-2018
Figure 23: OTT video services on the TV set, by primary and secondary, Poland, 2013-2018
Figure 24: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Russia, 2013-2018
Figure 25: Pay-TV spend by platform, Russia, 2013-2018
Figure 26: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, Russia, 2013-2018
Figure 27: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Turkey, 2013-2018
Figure 28: Pay-TV spend by platform, Turkey, 2013-2018
Figure 29: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, Turkey, 2013-2018
Figure 30: Regional breakdown used in this report

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