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LTE worldwide outlook: technology, devices, services and pricing, and deployment forecasts 2013–2018

  • October 2013
  • 76 pages
  • Analysys Mason
Report ID: 1862692

Summary

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LTE is out of the experimental stage and is being deployed. Unlike the last major technology upgrade to 3G, most countries are not experiencing 'deployment fever'. Instead, MNOs want to maximise their use of their 3G network infrastructure, and will deploy LTE as demanded by the market and competitive concerns.

About this report

This report provides:
• a 5-year forecast of LTE connections, revenue and data traffic, and LTE’s share of these KPIs in each geographical area
• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and inhibitors for the adoption of LTE networks and devices
• a discussion of the technical characteristics of LTE and LTE-A, and of other factors that affect supply-side take-up of LTE including spectrum and the device ecosystem
• a comparison of LTE pricing, revenue and data traffic growth with lower technology generations
• an analysis of TD-LTE networks, in terms of share of operators, countries and LTE connections worldwide
• key implications and recommendations for mobile operators that are considering the transition to LTE.

This report draws on Analysys Mason’s core forecasts for each of the geographical regions; wireless traffic forecasts; Wireless network tracker; and Spectrum auction tracker.

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled:
• Western Europe
• Central and Eastern Europe
• North America
• Latin America
• Developed Asia–Pacific
• Emerging Asia–Pacific
• Middle East and North Africa
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Worldwide

Major KPIs

We show the LTE share of the following mobile market metrics up to 2018:
• handset connections
• broadband connections
• service revenue
• handset data traffic
• broadband data traffic

Operators discussed in this report

LTE operators mentioned include:
• A1 Telekom Austria
• AT&T
• China Mobile
• EE
• LG Uplus
• NTT Docomo
• Optimus
• SK Telecom
• Smart
• Sprint
• T-Mobile
• Telefónica
• Telkom Mobile (8ta)
• Telstra
• Turkcell
• Verizon Wireless
• Vodafone
• Yota

More than 20 new LTE handset models and 30 mobile broadband devices entered the market every month on average during 2013

The number of LTE devices nearly doubled between November 2012 and July 2013. Two key factors drive this growth.
• The LTE device cycle: Handset vendors tend to release new flagship models every 12 months.
• New LTE markets: Countries such as France, Italy and the UK have launched LTE networks, creating demand for more devices in the 800MHz and 2600MHz bands.

The LTE device ecosystem is becoming more diverse.
• The LTE device space is dominated by mobile broadband devices such as USB modems, routers and embedded modules.
• Handsets only represented a third of the LTE device ecosystem in July 2013. By comparison, handsets corresponded to 44% of the HSDPA device ecosystem at the same period.

The number of LTE-compatible handsets is set to grow significantly in the next couple of years as LTE deployments mature particularly in Europe. There were 360 LTE handset models in July 2013 compared with 1679 HSDPA handset models.

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