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Strategic Analysis of Global Hybrid and Electric Heavy-Duty Transit Bus Market

  • 183 pages, published in October 2013
  • By Frost & Sullivan
  • Report Number: 1863197

Summary

Table of Contents

China to Account for Nearly Half the Global H&E Bus Sales by 2020

Advanced powertrain technologies, such as hybridization and electrification of transit buses, will find huge demand and this decade will mark an accelerated growth story for both these green technologies. The study captures the key emerging trends in the global heavy duty hybrid and electric transit bus market with an emphasis on technologies trends, market growth forecast for key regions, and market share of transit bus OEMs, hybrid and electric technologies. Additionally, key hybrid and electric system supplier profiles, key global transit bus OEM profiles, and product mapping for major regions have been covered.

Executive Summary—Top HD Transit Bus Market Performance

The global market softened across the board in 2012, and North America and India showed moderate growth in transit bus sales while China and Russia experienced decent growth.
• Robust demand from Tier II cities and new BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) services have helped sustain market growth in China.
• Sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures across Europe weakened transit bus demand. However, subsidies were extended to green energy buses.
• Despite slowdown in second half of the year, the Indian transit bus market experienced a marginal yoy growth. The slowdown is expected to continue through 2013.
• North American bus industry showed recovery on the backing of replacement orders and federal push for green mobility.
• Slowing Brazilian economy, coupled with Euro V introduction impacted transit bus sales. However, there was a recovery in the last quarter.
• Russia’s urban passenger mobility space saw major push in wake of rising congestion and the modernization drive by fleets.

Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility

The future of urban transportation is multimodal commuting, combining door-to-door solutions using dedicated mobility platforms.
• Door-to-door integrated, multimobility a reality in future
• Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first- and last-mile connectivity
• Government to combine public transport with bike/two-wheeler/car-rental schemes
• Market will see new participants in market termed as Mobility Integrators

The HD transit buses and BRT provide a X to Xpphpd capacity that can bridge the gap between high-capacity upstream urban rail systems and low-capacity downstream transportation options.
• Subways and heavy urban rail systems are available in city centres in urban areas.
• The operating capacities are X to X passenger per hour per direction (pphpd).
• Car sharing, bike sharing and other non-motorized transportation options emerge critical in delivering the last-mile connectivity.

• Conventional buses can handle capacities in the range of X toX pphpd.
• BRT has an ideal capacity of X to Xpphpd to bridge the gap.

Executive Summary—Comparison of Transit Bus and Urban Railway

Transit bus systems emerge as a sustainable solution for both developed and developing economies, with relatively lower capital expenditure and high route flexibility compared to railway system.

Executive Summary—Transit Bus Market Key Influencing Trends

The lowest pressure on existing energy infrastructure and lower emissions relative to CNG/LNG buses will catalyze the relevance and prevalence of hybrid buses for urban mobility through the forecast period and after.

H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Influencing Trends, Global, 2012–2020
Urbanization and Congestion
• Low emission zones
• Low cost and quick mass transport
• Connectivity between multiple points in city and suburbs
Regulatory Environment
• Legislations mandating greener transport solutions
• Subsidies for electric/hybrid/ alternate fuel vehicles
• Strict fuel efficiency targets
Energy Storage modules
• Rapid technological advancements
• Falling module prices
• Increased production capacity
Infrastructure development
• Investment in charging infrastructure
• Preference for BRT system
• Off-board ticketing system
Global Competition
• Expansion into global markets to increase revenue
• Develop innovative transit solutions to stay ahead of competition
Energy Security
• Reducing dependency on energy import
• Adoption of renewable and alternate energy
• Drive towards fuel efficient vehicles

Executive Summary—2020 Snapshot of Global HD Transit Bus Market

BRIC nations will lead growth, however, the ROW markets such as Africa and ASEAN are expected to gain significance as they migrate towards economical and flexible urban transportation solutions.

Key Questions this Study Will Answer

What are the key market and technology trends influencing the H&E HD transit bus market?
What is the HD total transit bus market in key market regions and the penetration of H&E technology in the total HD transit bus market?
What is the competitive landscape and dynamics influencing growth and development of this market?
What is the split between different technologies used in H&E modules in key market regions?

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