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U.S. Wavelength Services Market Forecasts, 2013

  • October 2013
  • 58 pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 1870911

Summary

Table of Contents

This research study covers the U.S. market for wavelength services through the period 2012 to 2017. The analysis in the study is segmented by retail (sales to enterprises) versus wholesale (sales to service providers) revenues; and percentage breakouts of revenues by native versus Ethernet over Waves speeds.

Executive Summary

The wavelength services market is expected to witness higher single digit growth rates throughout the forecast period, due to exponential bandwidth demand from wholesale and retail customers. Ethernet over Waves (EoW) has provided the much needed push for the wavelength services market, with almost all service providers that were interviewed for the study confirming that the majority of their sales in the past year has been for EoW circuit versus native or transparent waves.

Key research finding of this research are as follows:
•Native wavelength services revenue is expected to decline throughout the forecast period, as the market shifts to EoW services. This is true for wholesale and retail markets, but the decline is faster on the retail side.
•Demand for X Gbps speed is declining rapidly as the bandwidth requirements are surpassing XG andXG speeds.XG remains the most predominantly used transparent waves service in the market today. XG continues to struggle with market acceptance as customers want to make the leap to XG directly.
•EoW market revenues are expected to witness double digit growth throughout the forecast period. 1 GigE revenues are expected to decline as CSPs are increasingly offering GigE speeds over layer 2 switched Ethernet services.
• GE is the new 1 GigE, with a majority of the new provisioned EoW circuits being X GE.
• GE is gaining traction, but growth has been slow. CSPs report that interest in XGE has picked up due to pricing concerns associated with 100 GE. While the market waited for XG service to make the leap, the pricing of 100GE circuits available today is higher than the market expectation. Customers expected to payX to X times the 10x10G price, but the 100GE circuits cost X to X times a 10x10G implementation.
•Most CSPs have deployed 100G in their backbone network, and have also announced XGE service; however, no sales forXGE have been reported. Most customer requests are still in the RFP stage, hence the low estimates for XGE service. This is expected to change in the next couple of years, with market revenues steadily increasing.

Market Definitions

•Wavelength services, as defined in this study, include all native wave service speeds— XGbps,XGbps andX Gbps, and Ethernet over Waves (EoW) service speeds—1 GigE,X GE, XGE andXGE. Traditional wavelength services entail unprotected connections between two locations. But wavelengths can also be protected and can be built for geographic redundancy.
•Most service providers in the U.S. market offer transparent wave services, where the service is protocol independent, allowing customers to run any protocol over the waves. Some of the protocols that are typically run on native wavelength services are Enterprise Systems Connections (ESCON), Fiber Connection (FICON), Fiber Distributed Data Interface (FDDI), Fiber Channel, Digital Video, and Synchronous Optical Networking (SONET) OC-48 & OC-192 protocols. However, some service providers do categorize their wave services into different products, depending on the application that is being run on the waves. For example, AT&T offers a wave service called FiberMAN, which is sold to customers looking to run Fiber Channel protocol for storage area networking.

Research Scope & Methodology

•This research study covers the U.S. market for wavelength services through the period 2012 to 2017. The analysis in the study is segmented by retail (sales to enterprises) versus wholesale (sales to service providers) revenues; and percentage breakouts of revenues by native versus Ethernet over Waves speeds.
•Frost & Sullivan conducted detailed primary interviews with leading communications service providers, analyzed their quarterly and annual reports, and utilized internal databases to perform detailed revenue analysis on the wavelength services market. The revenue estimates for leading service providers were sent to individual companies for feedback, and any responses were further analyzed and compared to our forecast model. The resulting revenue market size reflects a sum total of our estimates for individual companies.

Total Wavelength Services Forecasts

The total wavelength services market revenues were close to $X billion in 2012, largely due to the growth in EoW services adoption in the retail market.
Retail market revenues are growing faster than wholesale due to a surge in EoW services adoption among enterprises.

Total Wavelength Services Forecasts – Wholesale Market

Growing demand for EoW services is contributing to higher single digits growth in wholesale service revenues.

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