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U.S. Wavelength Services Market Forecasts, 2013

  • October 2013
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 58 pages

This research study covers the U.S. market for wavelength services through the period 2012 to 2017. The analysis in the study is segmented by retail (sales to enterprises) versus wholesale (sales to service providers) revenues; and percentage breakouts of revenues by native versus Ethernet over Waves speeds.

Executive Summary

The wavelength services market is expected to witness higher single digit growth rates throughout the forecast period, due to exponential bandwidth demand from wholesale and retail customers. Ethernet over Waves (EoW) has provided the much needed push for the wavelength services market, with almost all service providers that were interviewed for the study confirming that the majority of their sales in the past year has been for EoW circuit versus native or transparent waves.

Key research finding of this research are as follows:
•Native wavelength services revenue is expected to decline throughout the forecast period, as the market shifts to EoW services. This is true for wholesale and retail markets, but the decline is faster on the retail side.
•Demand for X Gbps speed is declining rapidly as the bandwidth requirements are surpassing XG andXG speeds.XG remains the most predominantly used transparent waves service in the market today. XG continues to struggle with market acceptance as customers want to make the leap to XG directly.
•EoW market revenues are expected to witness double digit growth throughout the forecast period. 1 GigE revenues are expected to decline as CSPs are increasingly offering GigE speeds over layer 2 switched Ethernet services.
• GE is the new 1 GigE, with a majority of the new provisioned EoW circuits being X GE.
• GE is gaining traction, but growth has been slow. CSPs report that interest in XGE has picked up due to pricing concerns associated with 100 GE. While the market waited for XG service to make the leap, the pricing of 100GE circuits available today is higher than the market expectation. Customers expected to payX to X times the 10x10G price, but the 100GE circuits cost X to X times a 10x10G implementation.
•Most CSPs have deployed 100G in their backbone network, and have also announced XGE service; however, no sales forXGE have been reported. Most customer requests are still in the RFP stage, hence the low estimates for XGE service. This is expected to change in the next couple of years, with market revenues steadily increasing.

Market Definitions

•Wavelength services, as defined in this study, include all native wave service speeds— XGbps,XGbps andX Gbps, and Ethernet over Waves (EoW) service speeds—1 GigE,X GE, XGE andXGE. Traditional wavelength services entail unprotected connections between two locations. But wavelengths can also be protected and can be built for geographic redundancy.
•Most service providers in the U.S. market offer transparent wave services, where the service is protocol independent, allowing customers to run any protocol over the waves. Some of the protocols that are typically run on native wavelength services are Enterprise Systems Connections (ESCON), Fiber Connection (FICON), Fiber Distributed Data Interface (FDDI), Fiber Channel, Digital Video, and Synchronous Optical Networking (SONET) OC-48 & OC-192 protocols. However, some service providers do categorize their wave services into different products, depending on the application that is being run on the waves. For example, AT&T offers a wave service called FiberMAN, which is sold to customers looking to run Fiber Channel protocol for storage area networking.

Research Scope & Methodology

•This research study covers the U.S. market for wavelength services through the period 2012 to 2017. The analysis in the study is segmented by retail (sales to enterprises) versus wholesale (sales to service providers) revenues; and percentage breakouts of revenues by native versus Ethernet over Waves speeds.
•Frost & Sullivan conducted detailed primary interviews with leading communications service providers, analyzed their quarterly and annual reports, and utilized internal databases to perform detailed revenue analysis on the wavelength services market. The revenue estimates for leading service providers were sent to individual companies for feedback, and any responses were further analyzed and compared to our forecast model. The resulting revenue market size reflects a sum total of our estimates for individual companies.

Total Wavelength Services Forecasts

The total wavelength services market revenues were close to $X billion in 2012, largely due to the growth in EoW services adoption in the retail market.
Retail market revenues are growing faster than wholesale due to a surge in EoW services adoption among enterprises.

Total Wavelength Services Forecasts – Wholesale Market

Growing demand for EoW services is contributing to higher single digits growth in wholesale service revenues.

Table Of Contents

U.S. Wavelength Services Market Forecasts, 2013
Table Of Contents

Executive Summary 6
Market Definitions and Scope 9
Total Market Forecasts
Total Wavelength Services Market: Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 12
Total Wavelength Services Market: Revenue Split by Retail vs. Wholesale (U.S.), 2012-2017 13
Total Wavelength Services Market: Wholesale Market Forecasts (U.S.), 2012-2017 14
Total Wavelength Services Market: Wholesale Revenue Split by Metro vs. Long Haul (U.S.), 2012-2017 15
Total Wavelength Services Market: Retail Market Forecasts (U.S.), 2012-2017 16
Total Wavelength Services Market: Retail Revenue Split by Metro vs. Long Haul (U.S.), 2012-2017 17
Total Wavelength Services Market Shares (U.S.), 2012 18
Wholesale Wavelength Services Market Forecasts
Market Trends 20
Wholesale Wavelength Services Market: Total Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 21
Wholesale Wavelength Services Market: Revenue Split by Native vs. EoW, U.S., 2012-2017 22
Wholesale Wavelength Services Market: Native Waves Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 23
Wholesale Native Wavelength Services Market: Revenue Split by Port Speeds U.S., 2012-2017 24
Wholesale Native Wavelength Services Market: 2.5 Gbps Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 25
Wholesale Native Wavelength Services Market: 10 Gbps Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 26
Wholesale Native Wavelength Services Market: 40 Gbps Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 27
Wholesale EoW Services Market: Total Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 28
Wholesale EoW Services Market: Revenue Split by Port Speeds U.S., 2012-2017 29
Wholesale EoW Wavelength Services Market: 1 GigE Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 30
Wholesale EoW Services Market: 10GE Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 31
Wholesale EoW Services Market: 40 GE Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 32
Wholesale EoW Services Market: 100 GE Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 33
Wholesale Wavelength Services Market: Total Market Shares (U.S.), 2012 34
Wholesale Wavelength Services Market: Native Waves Market Shares (U.S.), 2012 35
Wholesale Wavelength Services Market: EoW Services Market Shares (U.S.), 2012 36
Retail Wavelength Services Market Forecasts
Market Trends 38
Retail Wavelength Services Market: Total Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 39
Retail Wavelength Services Market: Revenue Split by Native vs. EoW, U.S., 2012-2017 40
Retail Wavelength Services Market: Native Waves Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 41
Retail Native Wavelength Services Market: Revenue Split by Port Speeds U.S., 2012-2017 42
Retail Native Wavelength Services Market: 2.5 Gbps Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 43
Retail Native Wavelength Services Market: 10 Gbps Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 44
Retail EoW Services Market: Total Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 45
Retail EoW Services Market: Revenue Split by Port Speeds U.S., 2012-2017 46
Retail EoW Wavelength Services Market: 1 GigE Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 47
Retail EoW Services Market: 10GE Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 48
Retail EoW Services Market: 40 GE Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 49
Retail EoW Services Market: 100 GE Revenue Forecast, U.S., 2012-2017 50
Retail Wavelength Services Market: Total Market Shares (U.S.), 2012 51
Retail Wavelength Services Market: Native Waves Market Shares (U.S.), 2012 52
Retail Wavelength Services Market: EoW Services Market Shares (U.S.), 2012 53
Appendix 54

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