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Analysis of the US DoD Unmanned Aerial Systems Market

  • November 2013
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 106 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

Demand for Persistent Platforms with Open Systems Architecture is Driving a Shrinking Market

As the Department of Defense's discretionary spending continues to decrease, unmanned aerial systems will still be in high demand, mainly as tools for persistent intelligence gathering. However, even though demand is shrinking in the US military, it is increasing within global militaries as well as in the commercial market. The US Department of Defense contractors will need to exploit these markets if they expect to experience growth. This research service analyzes the US Department of Defense unmanned aerial systems market drivers, restraints, and trends through 2018 as well as makes educated predictions beyond the forecast period of 2013 to 2018

Key Findings

• The Department of Defense (DoD) budget request in the 2014 president’s budget (PB) is $X billion, which includes $X billion for overseas contingency operations (OCO) funding.
• According to the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011, the DoD budget for 2014 cannot exceed $X billion. Excluding OCO, the PB stands at $X billion or $X billion over the maximum allowed.
• Unmanned aerial system (UAS) funding through 2018 is forecasted to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of X%. This forecast assumes the PB is approved as currently written.
• Procurement funding will decrease and then remain relatively flat at $X to $Xbillion per year throughout the forecast period.
• Research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) funding is planned to increase significantly because of the Air Force’s (AF) long range strike bomber (LRS-B). However, sequestration and the DoD budget ceilings imposed by the BCA is expected to impact severely LRS-B funding.
• The AF plans to spend nearly as much in the UAS market as all the other services combined in 2014. The AF will be the largest market spender throughout the forecast period.
• High altitude, long endurance (HALE) vehicles are the largest UAS segment, with a 2014 budget request of $X billion.
• In 2012, the DoD awarded $X billion to X companies in the UAS market. General Atomics was the top UAS firm, with $X billion in contracts.
• The top X market competitors owned X% of market spending in 2012, representing a slight increase over the X% value calculated for 2010.

CEO’s Perspective

1. The DoD UAS budget will decrease and then maintain a baseline between $X and $Xbillion per year.
2. While the US demand for military UASs is decreasing, global demand is increasing.
3. The market for military UASs is becoming more competitive, especially in the tactical and smaller segments, as more global competitors develop capable systems.
4. As the DoD UAS budget decreases, domestic UAS manufacturers must exploit opportunities in foreign military UAS markets as well as global commercial UAS markets.
5. Future UASs, tactical and larger, will need defensive capabilities or be teamed with manned systems for protection.

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

Is the DoD UAS market growing, how long will it continue to grow and at what rate?
What segments, technologies, and services make up the market?
What are the leading market drivers, restraints, and challenges?
What are the top programs for the DoD UAS market?
What technologies and services will be emphasized?
What companies are leading the market?

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