India Power Industry Update Quarter 2 2012

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BMI View: In light of India's economic and demographic growth, we expect power consumption to increase
from an estimated 821.24 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2013 to 1,433.24TWh in 2022. The country's 12th Five-
Year Plan anticipates energy demand will grow by 6% per annum and electricity capacity will expand by
100 gigawatts (GW). Critical to the plan is the focus on measures to combat the continued rise in India's
dependence on imported energy, and a move to favour diversification towards renewable sources as well as
nuclear.
The Key Trends and developments in the Indian electricity market are:
• Despite ambitious plans by the Indian government to boost domestic coal production, we expect the
country's reliance on coal imports to grow over the coming years. A combination of obstacles with vital
regulatory and bureaucratic hurdles being the most pertinent will continue to sap growth in the coal
sector, while burgeoning demand for coal resources fuel an increasing number of Indian companies to
embark on overseas ventures. With a stellar portfolio of coal deposits on offer, we believe southern
Africa is well-placed to capture the bulk of mining investment from India.
• Several developments within India's renewables industry highlight the continued interest the sector is
receiving from private investors and the political will that underpins it. We expect further significant
growth in the industry, and maintain our belief that renewables present significant investment
opportunities. However, we highlight that renewable-generated electricity is unlikely to contribute
significantly to the country's overall power generation capacity. This is founded on our concerns about
the sheer size of India's electricity market, coupled with our long-held view that the renewable industry
will not reach its full potential.

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