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Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 93 pages

BMI View: Turkey will continue to increase its consumption of crude oil, natural gas and refined fuelsthroughout our forecast period, which goes as far as 2020, remaining a net importer of all three. Positiveexploration results in the Thrace Basin present upside risk to our gas production forecast.The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

- With Russian-Turkish relations in a precarious state, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated thatmoving away from Russian energy dependence is a priority, with Turkey importing more than 50% of itsnatural gas and 11% of crude oil from Russia in 2015. However, we anticipate little change to Russia'sprominent role in Turkey's energy mix as, according to our Turkey Country Risk analysts, politicalrhetoric seldom has real economic implications.

Table Of Contents

Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Turkey - Key Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2014-2019) 16
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2020-2025) 16
Upstream Production - Gas 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2014-2019) 18
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2020-2025) 18
Refining 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2014-2019) 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2020-2025) 21
Refined Fuels Consumption 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2020-2025) 24
Gas Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2014-2019) 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2020-2025) 27
Trade - Oil 28
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019) 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) 30
Fuels Trade Forecast 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019) 37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) 37
Industry Risk Reward Index 38
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 38
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 40
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 40
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 42
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 43
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 45
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index 46
Turkey Upstream Index 46
Turkey Downstream Index 47
Market Overview 48
Turkey Energy Market Overview 48
Regulatory Structure 48
Fiscal Regime 49
Table: Turkey - Upstream Tax Regime 49
Licensing Regime 49
Table: Turkey - Contracts and Licensing Regime 49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 50
Oil Refineries 50
Table: Oil Refineries In Turkey 50
Service Stations 51
Oil Terminals/Ports 51
Oil Pipelines 51
LNG Terminals 52
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey 52
Gas Pipelines 52
Gas Storage 54
Competitive Landscape 55
Competitive Landscape Summary 55
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil and Gas Sector 56
Table: Key Upstream Players 56
Company Profile 57
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO) 57
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras) 61
OMV Petrol Ofisi 66
Other Summaries 70
Regional Overview 78
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 78
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling 78
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand 79
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth 80
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger 81
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 82
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 83
Table: Central and Eastern Europe - Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 84
Glossary 86
Table: Glossary Of Terms 86
Methodology 88
Industry Forecast Methodology 88
Source 90
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 90
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 92
Table: Weighting 93

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