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  4. > Colombia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Colombia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 90 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Colombia's agribusiness sector is being held back by a number of deep structural challenges -including the lingering consequences of internal armed conflict, structural inefficiencies, lowcompetitiveness and poor policy choices. As a result, area cultivated and yields have stagnated over thepast decade. But after several decades of disappointing growth in Colombia's agribusiness sector, theoutlook for production and exports is brightening. The efforts made to resolve the conflict, coupled with thepotential for upcoming agricultural reforms, have paved the way for the revival of Colombia's agribusiness.The coffee, fruits, sugar, palm oil and horticulture sectors offer the best opportunities. Colombianagriculture enjoys a large diversity thanks to abundant natural resources and diverse climates andtopography. Although FTAs may undermine the livestock and dairy sectors, they also provide Colombiawith large export markets. The US and EU, which are the main markets for Colombian agriculturalproducts, will see their imports grow in the coming years with the decrease in tariffs.

Key Forecasts

- Corn consumption growth to 2020: 18.4% to 7.1mn tonnes. Corn consumption will expand at a fasterpace than production over the medium term, boosted by the growth in the livestock sector, especially inthe poultry segment. The domestic corn deficit will reach 4.75mn tonnes by 2018/19, compared with3.95mn tonnes in 2013/14.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 26.4% to 1.8mn tonnes. Poultry will record the strongestgrowth within the livestock sector over the coming five years, supported by a growing domestic demandfor meat products at affordable prices.

- Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 11.3% to 14.8mn bags. Programmes to replace agingplantations and improve resistance to disease are starting to bear fruit and will support yields and lead toapick up in planted area in the coming years. The various FTAs signed over recent years with the US,Canada and the EU will provide Colombia with large export markets.

Table Of Contents

Colombia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: Colombia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Colombia - Risks To Grains Outlook 13
Table: Colombia - Select Grains Production and Consumption, 2014-2020 16
Sugar Outlook 17
Table: Colombia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Colombia - Risks To Sugar Outlook 18
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020) 21
Coffee Outlook 22
Table: Colombia - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Colombia - Risks To Coffee Outlook 23
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020) 27
Cocoa Outlook 28
Table: Colombia - Cocoa Production And Consumption Outlook 28
Table: Colombia - Risks To Cocoa Outlook 28
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020) 30
Dairy Outlook 31
Table: Colombia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 31
Table: Colombia - Risks To Dairy Outlook 32
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020) 35
Livestock Outlook 36
Table: Colombia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 36
Table: Colombia - Risks To Livestock Outlook 37
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020) 39
Commodities Price Analysis 40
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 40
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 40
Featured Analysis 42
Promising Potential Should Reforms Be Implemented 42
Table: Latin America - Country Risk And Operational Risks Indices, 2014 43
Table: Production Balance, Colombia (2010-2019) 48
Upstream Analysis 49
Americas Machinery Outlook 49
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 52
Americas GM Outlook 56
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 64
Downstream Analysis 71
Food 71
Latest Updates 71
Structural Trends 72
Table: Food Sales (Colombia 2013-2020) 74
Regional Overview 77
Table: TPP - Main Winners And Losers For Agriculture 82
Competitive Landscape 83
Table: Key Agribusiness Players 83
Demographic Forecast 84
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Colombia 1990-2025) 85
Table: Key Population Ratios (Colombia 1990-2025) 85
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Colombia 1990-2025) 86
Table: Population By Age Group (Colombia 1990-2025) 86
Table: Population By Age Group % (Colombia 1990-2025) 87
Methodology 89
Industry Forecast Methodology 89
Sector-Specific Methodology 90

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