Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015

  • April 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 140 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Rapid depletion at major maturing fields and a lack of new projects slated to come online will drag Algerian oil and gas output into decline, in the second half of our 10-year forecast period. Our bearish outlook is compounded by the sharp fall in global oil prices which - alongside a weak above-ground environment - will severely undercut prospective investments in the sector. We forecast a rapid in rise in domestic oil and gas consumption, fuelled by continued high level subsidisation, which will put increasing strain on the country's export volumes towards the end of the decade.

The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil and gas sector are:

- Algeria has substantial underexplored acreage. However, exploration will remain limited due to Sonatrach's strained financial position and a lack of foreign involvement in the sector. The country plans to launch a new licensing round in 2015, but we expect the response to be muted.

Table Of Contents

Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Algeria 2013-2018) 9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Algeria 2019-2024) 9
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria 10
Table: Algeria Fourth International Bid Round Block Awards 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Algeria Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2013-2018) 14
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2019-2024) 15
Upstream Production - Gas 17
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2013-2018) 17
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2019-2024) 18
Refining 20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2013-2018) 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2019-2024) 21
Refined Fuels Consumption 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2013-2018) 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2019-2024) 23
Gas Consumption 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2013-2018) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2019-2024) 28
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2013-2018) 31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2019-2024) 31
Table: Algeria LNG Contracts 33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 35
Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 35
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Index 36
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook 38
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 38
Emergent Producers Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles 39
Mature Producers Continue To Underperform Their Potential 40
Falling Oil Price Trims Rewards 40
An Underwhelming Downstream 41
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 41
Algeria - Risk/Reward Index 42
Market Overview 44
Algeria Energy Market Overview 44
Table: Algeria - Upstream Projects Database 45
Overview/State Role 45
Licensing And Regulation 46
Government Policy 47
Licensing Rounds 47
International Energy Relations 48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 50
LNG 50
Oil Refineries 50
Gas Pipelines 52
Competitive Landscape 58
Competitive Landscape Summary 58
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector 59
Table: Key Upstream Players 60
Table: Key Downstream Players 60
Company Profile 61
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach 61
Anadarko 68
Eni Algeria Production 71
BP 75
Total 78
Repsol 81
BHP Petroleum 84
Cepsa 86
Statoil 90
Other Summaries 93
Regional Overview 97
Africa Oil and Gas Regional Overview 97
Lower Risk Appetite Slowing Exploration Drive 97
Unconventionals: A New Frontier 100
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil 102
High-Risk Continent 103
Downstream Blues 105
Global Industry Overview 108
Global Industry Overview - Five Themes For 2015: Oil and Gas 108
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage 113
Appendix 115
Africa - Regional Appendix 115
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 115
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 116
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 116
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 117
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 118
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 119
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) 119
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 120
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) 121
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 122
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) 122
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 123
Algeria - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts 124
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2013-2018) 124
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2019-2024) 124
Algeria - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts 125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Algeria 2013-2018) 125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Algeria 2019-2024) 126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Algeria 2013-2018) 127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Algeria 2019-2024) 128
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Algeria 2013-2018) 129
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Algeria 2019-2024) 130
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2013-2018) 131
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Algeria 2019-2024) 131
Glossary 133
Table: Glossary Of Terms 133
Methodology 135
Industry Forecast Methodology 135
Source 137
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 137
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 139
Table: Weighting 140

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