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Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 103 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Powerful oil production growth realised in 2015 will come to an abrupt slowdown over thecoming years as lower oil prices subdue the governments' ability to reimburse development costs. Naturalgas imports from Iran from 2016 will play a significant role in meeting pent up demand from the powersector, while exports are set from the KRG to Turkey in 2019.We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

- Oil production, including output from the region of Kurdistan, reached 3.905mn b/d in 2015.

- Oil exports averaged 3.311mnb/d in 2015.

- Major full field development programmes at Majnoon and the West Qurna fields remain on hold. TheHalfaya expansion remains dependent on CNPC accepting deferred payment.

- This is due to the government's limited ability to pay for development costs with increased military andhumanitarian expenditure in a lower oil price environment.

- The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has switched oil remuneration from monthly payments toPSCs, creating a more consistent income stream for international oil companies.

- Genel Energy and the KRG are finalising a gas production sharing contract (PSC) for the Miran andBina Bawi fields. A final investment decision is expected in H216 with first exports to Turkey by 2019.

- We forecast Iraq to be a net importer of natural gas from 2016-2018, with exports to Diyala and Baghdaddue to begin from Iran.

- We see upside risk to Iraqi gas consumption from 2017 if the latest 20-35mn cubic metres per day gasimport deal from Iran to Basra is realised.

- The Beiji refinery has been removed from our forecast due to damage and looting making it inoperable.We have revised down the expected recovery in refined fuels production as a result.

Table Of Contents

Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Kurdistan Blocks And Operator 14
Upstream Projects 16
Table: Iraq - Major Upstream Projects 16
Upstream Production - Oil 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Basra Split Boosts Output 23
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2014-2019) 24
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2020-2025) 24
Upstream Production - Gas 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2014-2019) 27
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2020-2025) 27
Refining 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2020-2025) 31
Refined Fuels Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iraq 2014-2019) 35
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iraq 2020-2025) 35
Gas Consumption 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Oil 39
Latest Updates 39
Crude Trade Outlook 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019) 41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025) 41
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019) 43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025) 44
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 45
Latest Updates 45
Structural Trends 45
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019) 47
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025) 47
Industry Risk Reward Index 48
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 48
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 48
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 49
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 49
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 51
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 51
Iraq - Risk/Reward Index 54
Market Overview 55
Iraq Energy Market Overview 55
Regulatory Structure 55
Fiscal Regime 55
Table: Federal Government Technical Service Agreements 55
Table: KRG Production Sharing Agreements 56
Licensing Regime 56
Licensing Rounds 56
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009) 56
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009) 57
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010) 57
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 59
Oil Refineries 59
Table: Iraqi Refineries 59
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq 60
Oil Terminals/Ports 60
Oil Pipelines 61
Table: Major Iraqi Pipelines 61
Gas Pipelines 61
Competitive Landscape 63
Competitive Landscape Summary 63
Company Profiles 66
Other Summaries 66
Regional Overview 86
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview 86
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth 86
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth 88
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020 90
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress 91
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 93
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024) 94
Glossary 96
Table: Glossary Of Terms 96
Methodology 98
Industry Forecast Methodology 98
Source 100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 100
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 102
Table: Weighting 103

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