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Israel Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 86 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Efforts to block the natural gas framework in the High Court continue drag out itsimplementation and mar investor confidence in the Israeli oil and gas sector. Exports of gas are expected tobegin from H216.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Israel's oil and gas sector:

- Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu approved the gas framework on December 17 2015.

- Four successful petitions were filed with the High Court of Justice, in particular opposing the 'stabilityclause' which freezes regulatory and price changes for 10-15 years.

- The Court suggested an independent legal solution should be sought for the stability clause, a dealunlikely to pass in Knesset. Uncertainty remains.

- The framework would trigger the following restructuring of the Israeli offshore:

- Delek Group is to sell its entire 31% stake in the Tamar field within six years.

- Noble Energy is to reduce its stake in the Tamar field within six years from 36% to 25%, but willremain operator.

- Both Noble and Delek will be required to sell their entire holdings in the Karish and Tanin fieldswithin 14 months.

- Export quotas from the divestment of these fields will be transferred to the Leviathan field, but onlyonce the Tanin and Karish fields are connected to the mainland.

- The gas framework will allow for new exploration once passed, with Minister Yuval Steinitz expecting tooffer new exploration licenses.

- The gas framework will progress work on the Tamar expansion project, which we forecast to increaseproduction from mid-2018, and support progress on the Leviathan field.

Table Of Contents

Israel Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Israel 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Israel 13
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Tamar Project Gas Sales Agreements 21
Table: Letters Of Intent To Supply Leviathan Gas 22
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Israel 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Israel 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuel Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Israel 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Israel 2020-2025) 29
Gas Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Crude Oil Trade Outlook 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025) 35
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Leviathan Export Possibilities 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019) 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025) 40
Industry Risk Reward Index 41
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 41
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 41
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 42
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 44
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Israel - Risk/Reward Index 47
Market Overview 49
Israel Energy Market Overview 49
Regulatory Structure 49
Fiscal Regime 49
Table: Key Petroleum Taxes 49
Licensing Regime 50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 50
Oil Refineries 50
Table: Israel - Refineries 51
Oil Pipelines 51
Table: 750km Of Pipelines 51
Oil Terminals 52
Table: 37mn Cubic Metres Of Storage Capacity 52
Gas Storage 52
Gas Pipelines 53
Competitive Landscape 54
Table: Key Players - Israeli Oil And Gas Sector 55
Table: Key Downstream Players 56
Company Profile 57
Noble Energy 57
Table: Letters Of Intent To Purchase Leviathan Gas 58
Table: Noble Dominates Israeli Offshore 59
Other Summaries 61
Regional Overview 69
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview 69
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth 69
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth 71
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020 73
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress 74
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 76
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024) 77
Glossary 79
Table: Glossary Of Terms 79
Methodology 81
Industry Forecast Methodology 81
Source 83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 83
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 85
Table: Weighting 86

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