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  5. > Libya Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Libya Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 109 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Progress on peace negotiations has been slow and major barriers remain to formation of theLibyan unity government. We expect the government to take office in 2016, returning a significant trancheof shut-in production. However, the security environment will remain fragile, while chronicunderinvestment, substantial damage to infrastructure and a lack of maintenance works will all drag on therecovery. The downstream sector also faces major headwinds, due to the ageing and poorly utilisedinfrastructure, recurrent feedstock constraints and a severe lack of investment.

Key Trends & Latest Updates

- Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside riskto our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of theconflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over thecoming years.

- Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instabilityand unattractive fiscal and licensing terms.

- Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic tocontinue into 2016. We forecast an 8.1% y-o-y decline in crude and condensates output, averaging387,000b/d.

- Gas output has been somewhat less affected than crude and we estimate that in 2016 gas production willremain broadly stagnant, at 12.3bcm.

- Refineries will operate below capacity, due to both interruptions in the oil supply and the targeting of oiland gas infrastructure by opponents to the central governments.

Table Of Contents

Libya Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects 15
Upstream Production - Oil 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2014-2019) 21
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2020-2025) 22
Upstream Production - Gas 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2014-2019) 25
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2020-2025) 25
Refining 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2020-2025) 28
Refined Fuels Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2020-2025) 31
Gas Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Oil 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends: Crude Oil 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2014-2020) 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) 38
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019) 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) 39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019) 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) 42
Industry Risk/Reward Index 43
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 46
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 49
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Libya - Risk/Reward Index 51
Upstream Rewards 51
Upstream Risks 51
Downstream 52
Market Overview 53
Libya Energy Market Overview 53
Regulatory Structure 53
Licensing Regime 54
Table: Model EPSA Main Licensing Terms 54
Fiscal Regime 54
Table: Model EPSA Main Fiscal Terms 54
Licensing Rounds 54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 55
Oil Refineries 55
Table: Libya Oil Refineries 55
Oil Terminals 55
Table: Libya Oil Terminals 55
LNG Terminals 56
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya 56
Oil and Gas Pipelines 56
Table: Libya Main Export Pipelines 56
Competitive Landscape 57
Competitive Landscape Summary 57
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil and Gas Sector 58
Table: Key Upstream Players 59
Company Profile 60
ConocoPhillips 60
Eni North Africa 64
Marathon Oil 69
National Oil Corporation (NOC) 74
OMV Of Libya 79
Repsol Libya 83
Total Libya 86
Other Summaries 89
Regional Overview 93
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 93
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 101
Glossary 102
Table: Glossary Of Terms 102
Methodology 104
Industry Forecast Methodology 104
Source 106
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 106
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 108
Table: Weighting 109

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