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Bahrain Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 85 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the keydevelopment for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the kingdom's centrepiece Sitrarefinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and awidening of the country's fiscal deficit until 2020. This marks a two-year delayto our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2018.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:

- Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at theBahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the lowpermeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We havenot yet included all volumes projected by the project.

- In early 2015, the chief executive of Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) said a plan on whether toproceed with a final investment decision on the refinery expansion would only be presented in 2016. Asof March 2016, the company has yet to decide on its expansion. Should it proceed, completion of therefinery would be targeted by 2020. A 2020 completion date is a two-year delay to the original upgradetimeline, which targeted completion by 2018. We have modified our Bahrain forecast to reflect thisdelay, pushing back a ramp-up in refined fuels production to 2020.

- In reaction to the low oil prices and its unsustainable fiscal dynamics, Bahrain has finally increasedrefined fuel prices late 2015/early 2016, and notably for gasoline prices, a first in the past 33 years. Weslightly adjusted out refined fuels consumption forecast in reaction. We expect further such moves can beexpected over the coming quarters and years, although changes will be implemented slowly andincrementally.

- Indicative of expected gas production growth at the field is the award late 2015 of a contract in Bahrain tosupply a new gas processing facility to Petrofac. The new facility with a 5.1bcm capacity is the first of aseries of planned gas capacity projects scheduled for the next three to five years.

Table Of Contents

Bahrain Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2014-2019) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2020-2025) 11
Upstream Production - Oil 12
Latest Updates 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) 14
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) 15
Upstream Production - Gas 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) 18
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) 18
Refining 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) 24
Refined Fuels Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025) 28
Gas Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Oil 32
Crude Oil 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2020) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) 34
Refined Fuels 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019) 37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 38
Industry Risk Reward Index 40
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 41
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 41
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 43
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Index 46
Market Overview 48
Bahrain Energy Market Overview 48
Regulatory Structure 48
Fiscal Regime 49
Licensing Regime 49
Table: Bahrain Licensing Regime 49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 50
Oil Refineries 50
Table: Refineries In Bahrain 50
Oil Storage Facilities 51
Service Stations 51
Oil Pipelines 51
Gas Pipelines 52
Competitive Landscape 53
Competitive Landscape Summary 53
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil and Gas Sector 54
Table: Key Upstream Players 54
Table: Key Downstream Players 54
Company Profile 55
Banagas 55
BAPCO 58
Chevron Bahrain 62
Occidental Petroleum 64
Other Summaries 67
Regional Overview 68
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview 68
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth 68
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth 70
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020 72
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress 73
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 75
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024) 76
Glossary 78
Table: Glossary Of Terms 78
Methodology 80
Industry Forecast Methodology 80
Source 82
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 82
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 84
Table: Weighting 85

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