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Colombia Power Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 58 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Venezuela's suspension of natural gas exports to Colombia will increase pressure on theColombian power system in 2016 as the country ramps up thermal generation to weather the droughtbrought on by El Niño. This development has prompted us to downgrade our forecast for gas-fired powergeneration in Colombia in 2016 and it could lead to the government hiking electricity tariffs for all endusers to ensure oil-fired generators remain financially viable amid higher fuel costs.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The impacts of the drought created by the El Niño weather phenomenon will be the main driver ofdevelopments in the Colombian power market in 2016. We expect a sharp fall in hydropower generationin 2015-2016, which has forced additional diesel and natural gas-fired power plants to be dispatched. Theavailability of excess thermal capacity to be used during periods of poor hydrology and plans to importnatural gas should both allow Colombia to avoid experiencing power cuts, albeit narrowly.

- Due to a lack of domestic feedstock to satisfy the growing demand from power generators, Colombiahad started importing natural gas from Venezuela from January 2016. However, in January 2016Venezuela halted the exports, citing climate factors, as well as the need to generate electricity. InFebruary 2016 Minister of Mines and Energy Tomás González Estrada, announced the country willimport natural gas from Ecuador instead.

- The government is reportedly considering introducing an extraordinary hike on electricity tariffs paid byall consumers in the country. This would allow it to compensate the thermal generation plants that maketheir capacity available during the drought. Some of these have struggled to operate in the current crisis,as the price they are paid is lower than the costs they incur when running on diesel - more expensive thanthe lacking natural gas.

- The Government finally sold its majority stake in Isagen in January to Canada's Brookfield AssetManagement for COP6.49 tr (Brookfield valued the sale at USD2.2 bn) after years of delays. However,the sale received widespread criticismand in February 2016 and Colombia's attorney general's officeopened a preliminary investigation into Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas for supposed irregularitiesin privatisation of the company.

Table Of Contents

Colombia Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Colombia 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Colombia Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Colombia 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Colombia 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Colombia Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025) 21
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025) 22
Electricity Consumption 23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025) 24
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025) 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019) 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025) 25
Industry Risk/Reward Index 26
Table: Macri's Planned Power Policy Reforms 31
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100 31
Colombia Power Risk/Reward Index 32
Rewards 32
Risks 33
Market Overview 34
Key Policies And Market Structure 34
Regulation And Competition 34
Sustainable Energy Policies 35
Pricing 35
Colombia Power Projects Database 37
Table: Colombia - top 10 power projects by capacity 38
Competitive Landscape 40
Emgesa 40
Interconexion Electrica (ISA) 41
Empresas Públicas de Medellín (EPM) 41
Isagen 41
Union Fenosa/EPSA 42
Codensa 42
Empresa de Energía de Bogotá (EEB) 42
Company Profile 43
Interconexión Electrica SA (ISA) 43
Regional Overview 46
Latin America Power: Key Themes For 2016 46
Glossary 52
Table: Glossary Of Terms 52
Methodology 53
Methodology And Sources 53
Industry Forecast Methodology 53
Sources 56
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 56
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 58

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