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Indonesia Mining Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 80 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Indonesia's mineral production growth will remain slow on the back of heightenedenvironmental protection, slowdown in the Chinese economy and continued mineral price weakness Theimpending ban moderation on the export of mineral ores will provide some respite to production, especiallyin the case of bauxite

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- We expect the Indonesian government will push ahead with its February 2016 proposal to revise thecountry's mineral ore export ban by September 2016 as expected investment in the downstream sector hasnot materialised The bauxite sector will benefit most from the relaxation of the ban, as the sectorregistered poor smelter construction and the greatest loss in revenues as a result of the ban We expect ourcurrent production forecasts to face upside risks due to the impending ban moderation

- We forecast bauxite production growth in Indonesia to register an annual average of 1482% during2016-2020, mainly because of acceleration in production in 2016 of 600% due to China Hongqiao GroupLimited's smelter facility coming online Hongqiao will initially produce one million tonnes per annum ofaluminium, doubling capacity by 2017 One tonne of aluminium requires approximately five tonnes ofbauxite to produce Contrary to numerous smelter project proposals in 2014 and our past expectations onhigh smelter investment from China, smelter investment for bauxite has been stagnant as a result of lowprices and lack of funding In March 2016 Hongqiao started trial runs in its new alumina smelter inIndonesia, adding to the only other smelter in the country, PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina, a subsidiaryof diversified local miner PT Antam

- We expect Indonesia's coal production to fall by 150% to 314 million tonnes (mnt) in 2016, followed bysubdued growth henceforth to 2020, registering an average annual growth of 30% per annum during2016-2020 Over the long term, despite the one time fall in domestic production due to the crackdown onillegal mining in 2015, we believe output will be supported by strong demand from a domestic pipeline ofcoal-fired power plants and continued import demand from Asia Emerging economies including Chinaand India will continue to rely on coal for power generation over the next decade We expect domesticshortfalls in these countries to increase dependency on coal imports

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value Forecast (2012-2020) 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
Industry Forecast 11
Bauxite: Slow Recovery Without Ban Moderation 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 11
Table: Indonesia - Major Bauxite Project 12
Structural Trends 12
Coal: Subdued Growth Ahead 16
Latest developments 16
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 16
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects 16
Structural Trends 17
Copper: Steady Growth Ahead 24
Latest Developments 24
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 24
Table: Indonesia - Major Copper Projects 25
Structural Developments 25
Grasberg To Drive Output Growth 27
Nickel: Production To Rebound 28
Latest Developments 28
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2020) 28
Table: Indonesia - Select Nickel Projects 28
Structural Trends 29
Tin: Government Regulations To Slow Growth 32
Latest Developments 32
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 32
Table: Indonesia - Major Tin Projects 32
Structural Trends 33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 36
Risk/Reward Index 36
Rewards 36
Industry Rewards 36
Country Rewards 36
Risks 36
Industry Risks 36
Country Risks 37
Asia Risk/Reward Index 37
Australia Stays On Top While India and Myanmar Gain 37
Shifting Scores Reflect Changing Sector Dynamics 38
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 39
Regulatory Development 40
Key Developments 40
Ban Moderation On The Horizon 40
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities 41
The 2009 Mining Law 41
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 43
Commodities Forecast 47
Commodities Outlook 47
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 47
Competitive Landscape 48
Key Players 48
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia 49
Company Profile 51
PT Antam 51
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data 53
PT Bumi Resources 55
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data 57
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) 59
Table: ITM - Key Financial Data 60
PT Timah 62
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data 64
Freeport-McMoRan 66
Table: Freeport McMoRan - Key Financial Data 70
Regional Overview 72
Continued Domination Of Iron Ore Production 72
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 73
China and India To Lead In Outbound Investment 74
Indonesian Ban To Continue 76
Methodology 77
Industry Forecast Methodology 77
Sources 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 80

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