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Indonesia Power Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 53 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We forecast robust and sustained growth in Indonesia's power sector. Demand on the nationalpower network is growing rapidly - a result of both economic and population growth. The government isunder significant pressure to ensure that supply catches up to demand, and further to create a surplus forenergy exports. Pressure is also growing to develop greater renewable energy capacity, particularlyfollowing the effects of the pollution under the Southeast Asian haze crisis in late-2015. The investmentenvironment continues to improve and we are seeing a growing number of power plant projects entering thepipeline, primarily focused on coal-fired power but with a significant number of hydropower andgeothermal projects planned or underway. We do note, however, that despite ambitious plans, manyprojects have been subject to delays and while we expect generation and capacity to grow throughout theforecast period, we do not expect current government targets to be achievable.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Some progress is being made in the governments 35,000MW programme. State-owned utilityPerusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) announced it expects to complete a 100MW gas-fired power plant inthe country's province of Gorontalo in February 2016, the first to be commissioned under the expansionprogramme.

- Geothermal is another substantial growth area. In December 2015 the government launched the tenderprocesses for development contracts of three geothermal power plants in Way Ratai, Lampung; Maranain Central Sulawesi; and Gunung Talang- Bukit Kili, West Sumatra. Exploration is expected to takearound five years. The projects, worth a total of around USD380mn, are expected to start electricitygeneration in 2022.

- On December 8 2015, President Joko Widodo launched the first of the five new floating power stationscommissioned to address the country's growing demand for electricity. Widodo stated that the other fourvessels will be delivered over the next six months. The vessels will primarily serve eastern Indonesia,including the islands of Sulawesi, Halmaherah, Maluku and Papua.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Indonesia Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2014-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Indonesia Power Forecast Scenario 12
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 12
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 14
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 16
Non-Hydropower Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity Forecasts 19
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019) 19
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025) 20
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025) 22
Electricity Consumption 22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025) 23
Transmission and Distribution 23
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019) 25
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025) 25
Industry Risk/Reward Index 26
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index 26
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 30
Indonesia Power Risk/Reward Index 31
Rewards 31
Risks 31
Market Overview 33
Key Policies And Market Structure 33
Regulation And Competition 33
Sustainable Energy Policies 34
Pricing 35
Indonesia Power Projects Database 36
Table: Indonesia - Top 10 Projects By Capacity 38
Competitive Landscape 40
Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) 40
Central Java Power 41
Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) 41
Regional Overview 42
Asia Power Regional Overview 42
Table: China Power Snapshot 45
Glossary 47
Table: Glossary Of Terms 47
Methodology 48
Methodology And Sources 48
Industry Forecast Methodology 48
Sources 51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 51
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 53

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