Indonesia Power Industry Update Quarter 2 2012

  • March 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 70 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Nuclear power generation is not yet in Indonesia’s immediate plans but remains a credible long-term option. In the meantime, coal-fired generation and the use of renewables, particularly geothermal power, are expected to be the key growth areas, although the country continues to develop gas-fired plants that undermine its gas export capability. There is huge hydro potential but only a limited development programme. Investment needs to at least meet the government’s targets to avoid a steady increase in power import dependency.
Indonesia is moving slowly ahead with controversial plans to build its first nuclear power plant. Several schemes exist at the preliminary planning stage, but there is little evidence to suggest plant start-up during the current decade. The government says it has a total of US Dollar 8bn earmarked for four nuclear plants, which are intended to generate 6GW of power by 2025.
Key trends and recent developments in the Indonesian electricity industry include:
.. Market reports suggest that Indonesia holds up to 76GW of hydropower potential, but the country has yet to embark on the large hydro-electric programmes seen elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region. The capital cost involved has most likely deterred investors, who prefer to stick with conventional thermal schemes or embrace the concept of geothermal supply, with Indonesia claiming up to 27GW of additional generating capacity.
.. During the period from 2012 to 2021, Indonesia’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an average of 7.82% year-on-year (y-o-y), reaching 346TWh. Driving this growth are average annual gains of about 7.97% in coal-fired and 14.12% in non-hydro renewables generation, augmenting average projection increases of about 6.74% and 7.17% in the use of oil- and gas-fired electricity supply respectively.
.. With 2011 real Gross Domestic Product growth expected to have been 6.3%, BMI projections average annual growth of 6.4% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to increase from 242.3mn to 264.5mn during the period from 2012 to 2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from an estimated 151.3TWh in 2011 to 319.4TWh in 2021. The average annual growth rate for electricity demand over our projection period is expected to be 7.76%.
.. We projection a significant rise in net generation that should broadly match the trend in power consumption. However, there is downside risk to capacity expansion projections if the government cannot guarantee sufficient investment. We therefore expect Indonesia’s power supply shortfall, which is assumed at 5.4TWh in 2011, to rise slowly but steadily. A broadly unchanged percentage of transmission and distribution losses at 10-11.0% will not help balance the industry . The theoretical net import requirement by 2021 is put at 8.1TWh.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary .. 5
Industry SWOT Analysis .... 6
Indonesia Power SWOT 6
World Market Overview .. 7
Regional Market Overview . 12
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 12

Market Projection Scenario .. 17
Indonesia Snapshot (Macro) . 17
Data : Indonesia Economic and Demographic Data .... 17
Data : Indonesia Power Segment .. 17
Indonesia Projection Scenario . 18
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity .... 18
Data : Indonesia Total Generation Data .. 18
Data : Indonesia Total Long Term Generation Data 2014-2021 . 20
Data : Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Data .... 23
Data : Indonesia Long Term Electricity Generating Capacity Data 2014-2021 ... 24
Electricity Consumption ... 33
Data : Indonesia Total Consumption Data .... 33
Data : Indonesia Total Consumption Data .... 33
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports .... 34
Data : Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data 34
Data : Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data 34
Key Policies/Market Structure ... 37
Regulation and Competition . 37
Key Projects Database 38
Data : Major Infrastructure Projects Power Plants And Transmission Grids . 38

Environment Overview 43
Asia Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings.... 43
Data : Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings .. 44
Indonesia Power Risk/Reward Ratings 48
Rewards .. 48
Risks ... 48

Competition Overview ... 49
Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) .. 50
Glossary of Terms .. 53
Data : Glossary of Terms . 53
Methodology and Sources .... 54

Market Projection s . 54
Power Market - Data Methodology .... 55
Generation and Consumption Data 55
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 56
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 57
Data : Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 59
Sources ... 60

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