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Iran Infrastructure Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 53 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: As the majority of international sanctions have been lifted faster than expected and new historicdata has been released, we have upwardly revised our construction industry growth forecast for Iran in2016 from 3.2% to 4.5%. The lifting of sanctions will result in the gradual return of private investment aswell as improve Iran's access to funding for projects. As such, we expect the country's risk profile -particularly in the financing stage of the project life cycle - to continue to improve.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We forecast 4.5% y-o-y real construction industry growth in Iran in 2016 and an average of 6.1% overthe next five years as a result of the lifting of international sanctions and strong demand for infrastructure.

- Persistently low oil prices - our Oil & Gas Team forecasts Brent to average USD42.5/bbl in 2016 - willreduce government revenue, limiting public spending in infrastructure.

- As we expected, the lifting of sanctions is already having a positive impact on Iran's capability to financeinfrastructure projects. Reflecting the reduced risk in the financing stage, Iran now scores 34 out of 100 inthe Financing Risk pillar of our Project Risk Index (PRI), from a previous score of 18.8.

- Greater competitiveness in Iran's labour market will be required to support growth in the constructionindustry. Although Iran's labour force is highly educated by regional standards, high labour costs willcontinue to pose a structural barrier to investment.

- Despite an improving outlook for Iran's infrastructure sector, the country will continue to presentchallenges, including elevated political risk, macroeconomic weaknesses and corruption.

Table Of Contents

Iran Infrastructure Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Iran 2015-2021) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Iran) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Iran - Sanctions Removal To Unlock Funding For Infrastructure 9
Sanctions Removal To Unlock Funding For Infrastructure 9
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iran 2015-2025) 10
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 17
Table: Key Transport Infrastructure Projects 23
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 24
Table: Key Projects: Energy and Utilities 28
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 29
Table: Key Projects: Construction and Social Infrastructure 32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 33
Iran - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 33
Rewards 33
Risks 34
MENA Infrastructure RRI: Oil Prices And Security Remain Key Risks 35
Table: MENA RRI Table 40
Market Overview 41
Competitive Landscape 41
Table: Iran EQS Data 42
Company Profile 43
Iran Power Plant Projects Management Co (Mapna) 43
Methodology 46
Industry Forecast Methodology 46
Sector-Specific Methodology 47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 51
Sector-Specific Methodology 52
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 53

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