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Kazakhstan Mining Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 46 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Kazakhstan's mining sector remains well placed for long-term expansion over the next fewyears, with the country taking advantage of its geographical location to position itself as an importantsupplier of commodities to the Asian and European markets. While we forecast the prices of key minedcommodities such as coal, copper and iron ore to remain weak through to 2020, the sector is well placed totake advantage of the upside and, in particular, renewed demand from the likes of China and India.Strengthening trade links with these markets appear to support his strategy.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Despite ongoing weakness in global commodity prices we anticipate positive growth in Kazakhstan's coaland iron ore production in 2016 and through the remaining forecast period. We forecast coal output togrow by 1.9% a year on average over 2016-2020 to reach 143mn tonnes (mnt), while iron ore output willincrease by 1.2% to 28.1mnt.

- Prices of both commodities will contract in 2016, with iron ore prices falling by 9.4% to USD48/tonneand thermal call slipping by 1.7% to USD59/tonne. The price of copper will also fall, decreasing by 1.7%to USD5,400/tonne.

- The long-term growth of the mining sector will be supported by increased overseas demand as well as thegrowing needs of the domestic energy sector. The country's mining and energy sectors are attracting theattention of China and India and the Kazakhstani and Chinese governments recently signed agreementsworth USD5.1bn in the field of transport, energy, nuclear, metallurgical and chemical industries. Thisincludes the construction of a mining and metallurgical complex in Kazakhstan's Akmola region.

- Furthermore, in January 2016, multinational steelmaker ArcelorMittal announced the divestmetn of itsKuzbass coal mines in Siberia to Russia's National Fuel Company (NTK) in January 2016. The movewill allow the company to focus on its Kazakh mining operations, which has recently undergone aUSD430mn expansion.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Kazakhstan Mining Industry Value Forecast (2015-2020) 7
Industry Forecast 10
Coal: Export Growth To Drive Production 10
Latest Updates 10
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2013-2020) 10
Structural Trends 12
Industry Set For Solid Growth 13
Iron Ore: China Partnership May Fuel Long-Term Growth 15
Latest Developments 15
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2013-2020) 15
Structural Trends 17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18
Kazakhstan Risk/Reward Index 18
Rewards 18
Risks 18
Europe: Majority To Be Low Risk-Reward 20
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 21
Regulatory Development 22
Table: Kazakhstan - Mineral Extraction Taxes 22
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 24
Commodities Forecast 27
Commodities Outlook 27
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 27
Competitive Landscape 28
Table: Largest Mining Companies - Eastern Europe 29
Company Profile 31
KAZ Minerals 31
Table: KAZ Minerals - Financial Results 34
Eurasian Natural Resources 35
Table: Eurasian Resources - Financial Results 36
Regional Overview 37
Methodology 43
Industry Forecast Methodology 43
Sources 44
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 45
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 46

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