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Philippines Power Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 69 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect robust growth in the power sector in the Philippines, with total generation expectedto expand by an average of 4.8% during our 10-year forecast period to 2025. With recovery from the 2013typhoon gathering pace, reasonable domestic economic growth and a range of new projects beingannounced, overall the future is looking positive for the Philippine power market.Latest Updates And Structural TrendsNotwithstanding the adverse effects that linger from Typhoon Haiyan that struck the Philippines in late2013, we still expect to see growth in the longer term, with a range of projects including coal-fired plantsand various renewable energy constructions in the pipeline. We forecast total electricity generation growthof 5.2% in 2016, reaching 81.7TWh.

Further growth throughout the forecast period means total generationis expected to reach 122TWh by 2025.Thermal energy will continue to dominate the energy market in the Philippines, accounting for over 70% oftotal electricity generation through our forecast period. Healthy growth is expected across coal, natural gasand hydropower.The growth in electricity generation means we expect the Philippines will be able to keep up with theexpected increases in consumption, which we forecast will grow by about 5.0% a year, although the countryis vulnerable to fluctuations and we believe the power situation will remain tenuous.

Table Of Contents

Philippines Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Philippines 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Philippines Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Philippines 2015-2020) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Philippines 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Philippines Power Forecast Scenario 11
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecasts 11
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecasts 12
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecasts 14
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecasts 15
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 22
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 24
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index 25
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 29
Philippines Power Risk/Reward Index 30
Rewards 30
Risks 30
Market Overview 32
Key Policies And Market Structure 32
Regulation And Competition 32
Sustainable Energy Policies 34
Pricing 34
Philippines Power Projects Database 36
Table: Philippines Power Projects Database 36
Competitive Landscape 51
Napocor 52
The National Transmission Corporation (TransCo) 53
First Gen 54
Aboitiz Power 54
Ayala Corporation 55
Mirant 55
Meralco 56
EDC 57
AES 57
Regional Overview 58
Asia Power Regional Overview 58
Table: China Power Snapshot 61
Glossary 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Methodology 64
Methodology And Sources 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sources 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 69

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