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Poland Mining Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:
Growth in the Polish mining sector will be modest over the coming years. The coal sector will be overhauled as the government seeks to either restructure or close unprofitable mines. Copper output will struggle as falling copper ore grades and weak prices are set to hinder growth. Nevertheless, the rate of growth we forecast indicates that the country will remain one of the most significant players in the European coal, silver and copper markets.

Downside Risks
The main downside risks to our forecasts are weak copper and coal prices, cheap coal imports and labour unrest in the sector. Due to our view for a sharp slowdown in Chinese economic growth and expectation for
increased copper supply, we expect lower copper prices over coming years. We forecast copper prices to average USD6,450/tonne over 2014-2018, significantly lower than their 2011 average of USD8,826/tonne.
Combined with falling ore grades in Poland, these lower prices will significantly disincentivise investment in the sector. Lower commodity prices will also have the effect of squeezing miners' margins, precipitating
cutbacks and thus heightening the risk of industrial unrest. Poland's mining sector is comprised of strong unions and as such we highlight tense wage negotiations and potential strikes to affect the sector over
coming years.

Table Of Contents

Poland Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View ... 5
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Coal: Inefficient MInes and Weak Prices Spell Trouble ... 9
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Poland 2012-2020) 12
Copper: Modest Growth As Falling Grades Take Their Toll 13
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Poland 2012-2020) . 15
Industry Risk/Reward Index . 16
Poland Risk/Reward Index 16
Rewards ... 16
Risks 17
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Poland 2012-2020) 18
Europe: Majority To Be Low Risk-Reward ... 18
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 20
Regulatory Development .. 21
Table: Political Overview . 23
Table: Europe - Mining Regulatory Outlook . . 24
Commodities Forecast . 25
Commodities Outlook ... 25
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts . . 25
Competitive Landscape 26
Table: Poland - Major Mining and Metals Companies - Financial Data . . 26
Company Profile 27
KGHM .. 27
Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data . 30
Jastrz?bska Spó?ka W?glowa (JSW) 31
Table: JSW - Key Financial Data . . 33
Regional Overview 34
Methodology .. 40
Industry Forecast Methodology 40
Sources 41
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 42
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 43

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