Romania Oil and Gas Industry Update Quarter 2 2012

  • February 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 113 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Given Romania’s long history of oil/gas reserves and production, it would be surprising if renewed exploration efforts do not prove-up fresh resources and extend the life and scale of existing domestic supply. However, Romania needs to enlist more help, quickly, in order to avoid increase exposure to energy import dependency.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Romania’s oil and gas segment are:
- National oil and gas industry player OMV Petrom has started test production at the Totea well in the region of Oltenia, which is said to be the largest onshore gas and condensate well in Romania. Well capacity is put at 3,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). Petrom is to drill two appraisal wells which will provide additional information.
- ExxonMobil and OMV Petrom have discovered natural gas with their Domino-1 deep water exploration well in the Romanian segment of the Black Sea. However, it is too early to confirm the commercial viability of the discovery. The well in the Neptun block, in water depths of approximately 1,000m, is likely to be drilled to a total depth of more than 3,000m.
- Natural gas consumption – estimated 13.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 – is expected to reach at least 15.9bcm over the projection period to 2016. Romania’s gas production is projection to slip to no more than 8.0bcm by 2016, resulting in an import requirement of at least 7.9bcm. There have been a number of new, small discoveries capable of slowing the rate of decline in domestic supply.
- The deterioration of the economy and lack of progress in industry reform mean the consumption of oil has stagnated in recent years and will only grow once underlying economic activity picks up. We do not expect to see demand growth reaching 3.0% per year until beyond 2012, implying consumption of no more than 236,000b/d by 2016. We see domestic liquids production slipping from an estimated 93,000b/d in 2011 to 68,000b/d over the same period. This implies rising import levels, with volumes of 168,000b/d anticipated by 2016.
- The cost of crude imports in 2011 stood at an estimated US Dollar 4.25bn, and could rise to around US Dollar 5.72bn in 2016. Gas imports could cost the country US Dollar 3.65bn by 2016 – taking the combined crude and gas import bill for the end of the period to US Dollar 9.37bn. This should, however, be partially offset by the export of refined petroleum products.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US Dollar 99.38/bbl, falling to US Dollar 97.23/bbl in 2013. Global Gross Domestic Product in 2012 is projection at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.7%.

Table Of Contents

BMI Market View 5
Industry SWOT Analysis . 6
Romania Oil and Gas SWOT . 6
World Energy Industry Outlook 7
Data : Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9) 8
Data : World Oil Consumption, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) . 10
Data : World Oil Production, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) . 11
Regional Energy Industry Outlook 12
Romania Energy Industry Overview . 16

Market Projection Scenario . 17
Data : Romania Oil and Gas - Historical Data And Projections, from 2009 to 2016 . 17
Data : Market Summary Data 18
Oil And Gas Reserves 19
Oil Supply And Demand. 19
Gas Supply And Demand . 21
LNG . 21
Refining And Oil Products Trade . 21
Revenues/Import Costs 22

Key Risks To BMI’s Projection Scenario 22
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 23
Oil Refineries 23
Data : Refineries In Romania 23
South Development Region 23
South-East Development Region 24
North East Development Region 25
Service Stations 25
Oil Storage Facilities . 26
Oil Terminals/Ports . 26
Oil Pipelines 26
LNG Terminals 27
Gas Storage Facilities . 27
Gas Pipelines . 27
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings . 29
Data : CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Data : CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 33
Romania Upstream Rating - Overview 35
Romania Upstream Rating - Rewards . 35
Romania Upstream Rating - Risks. 35
Romania Downstream Rating - Overview . 35

Competition Overview . 36
Data : Key Players - Romania Oil And Gas Segment . 37
Overview/State Role 38
Licensing And Regulation 38
Government Policy 38
Licensing Rounds . 39
International Energy Relations 40
Data : Key Upstream Players 41
Data : Key Downstream Players . 41
Company Monitor . 42
OMV Petrom . 42
Romgaz . 45
Lukoil Romania . 48
Rompetrol . 50
OMV Romania 52
Eni - Summary . 53
ExxonMobil - Summary . 53
MOL - Summary 53
Regal Petroleum - Summary 53
Aurelian Oil and Gas - Summary . 54
Melrose Resources - Summary 54
Others - Summary . 55
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix 56
Data : Oil Consumption, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) . 56
Data : Oil Consumption Long- Term Projections, 2014-2021 (000b/d) . 56
Data : Oil Production, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) 57
Data : Oil Production Long-Term Projections, 2014-2021 (000b/d) . 58
Data : Refining Capacity, from 2009 to 2016 (000b/d) 58
Data : Refining Capacity Long Term Projections, 2014-2021 (000b/d) . 59
Data : Gas Consumption, from 2009 to 2016 (bcm) 59
Data : Gas Consumption Long-Term Projections, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 60
Data : Gas Production, from 2009 to 2016 (bcm) 61
Data : Gas Production Long-Term Projections, 2014-2021 (bcm) 61
Data : LNG Gas Exports, from 2009 to 2016 (bcm) 62
Glossary Of Terms . 64
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 65
Ratings Overview 65
Data : BMI’s Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure . 66
Indicators 66
Data : BMI’s Oil and Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology 66
Data : BMI’s Oil and Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology 67
BMI Methodology . 69
How We Generate Our Market Projections . 69
Energy Market 69
Cross checks . 70
Sources . 70

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