Singapore Tourism Industry Update Quarter 2 2012

  • April 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 55 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Another Strong Year In 2011, Singapore welcomed 13,171,303 tourists, a rise of 13.1% year on year (y-o-y). This was very much in line with BMI’s expectations for the year. Tourism receipts for the year totalled SGD22.2bn, up by 17% y-o-y, according to figures from the Singapore Tourism Board (STB).
Looking at individual source industries, Indonesia remained the most important source industry for inbound tourists in 2011, contributing 2,592,222 tourists to total arrivals during the year, up by 12.4% y-o-y. Other key industry s were China (1,577,522; 34.7%), Malaysia (1,140,935; 10%), Australia (956,039; 8.6%) and India (868,991; 4.8%).
There was also growth in arrivals from the Philippines (677,723) and Japan (656,417) both up by over 24%, while arrivals from Hong Kong were up by almost 20% at 464,375. Looking further afield, there was also notably strong growth in arrivals from New Zealand (122,995; up 28.4%) and Finland (23,905; up 53.1%). This diversification of source industry s away from the mainstays of Indonesia, China and Malaysia will strengthen Singapore’s overall tourism performance in the years ahead. From the strong data for 2011, it is clear that Singapore is benefiting from the establishment of the Resorts World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands integrated resorts, which are doing much to attract tourists to the country. We believe Singapore’s tourism success should continue in 2012 and beyond as more people choose to visit the new resorts, particularly from other Asian countries, as evident in the strong increases in arrivals from the Philippines, Japan and Hong Kong over the past 12 months.
For 2012, the STB has announced a target of 13.5-14.5mn tourist arrivals and SGD23-24bn in tourism receipts. BMI supports this analysis, currently targeting 14.29mn tourist arrivals and SGD23.5bn (US Dollar 18.35bn) in tourism receipts for the year. The CEO of the STB, Aw Kah Peng, has underlined Singapore’s commitment to focus on ‘quality tourism’, building on the strong performance of the market over the past two years. The government also remains supportive of the tourism market, announcing SGD905mn in funding for the country’s Tourism Development Fund, which the STB believes will ‘support the co-creation of innovative tourism products and events, and the enhancement of workforce capabilities’. We projection a total of 18.81mn same-day and overnight tourists visiting Singapore and US Dollar 22.16bn in tourism receipts by the end of our newly extended projection period in 2016.
New International Cruise Terminal To Boost Tourism Flows By the end of Q212, Singapore’s new US Dollar 400mn International Cruise Terminal (ICT) is scheduled to open. In December 2011, the STB said it had appointed a joint venture between local industry player SATS and Spanish industry player Creuers del Port de Barcelona to operate the terminal for 10 years. Once it is open, the new terminal will double Singapore’s berth capacity and enable larger cruise ships to stop at Singapore. The new terminal will also complement the Singapore Cruise Centre (SCC), which has been undergoing modernisation work reportedly totalling about US Dollar 11mn. In 2011, Singapore received 394 cruise ships carrying about 942,000 passengers, according to local media reports. Over half of the cruise ship passengers were foreign nationals, with the growth rate for cruise passengers over from 2002 to 2011 standing at 3.6% per year .
BMI believes Singapore is well placed to establish itself as a regional hub for cruise ships and we expect a steady increase in the number of cruise passengers arriving in the country through to 2016. Furthermore, Singapore has first-mover advantage as it has been able to complete its new cruise terminal ahead of a rival port in Hong Kong, where the new cruise terminal is not expect to open until 2013. Scoot To Launch In June 2012 Singapore Airlines’ low-cost airline Scoot plans to start operations at the end of June 2012, flying to two destinations in Australia, the Gold Coast and Sydney, using an initial fleet of four Boeing 777 aircraft. By the end of the year, Scoot hopes to Tianjin in China as well.
Scoot will be managed and run independently from Singapore Airlines and it will operate from Changi Airport Terminal 2. During its first year of operations, the airline hopes to fly to Australasia and China, with destinations across India, Europe and the Middle East to follow over the coming years. Online bookings for Scoot flights started in March with many aggressively-priced fares, including an economy fare starting at SGD88 for a Singapore-Sydney return ticket.
It remains to be seen how profitable this new venture will be for Singapore Airlines, with rival Malaysian operator AirAsia having already established a dominant position in the low-cost sector across the region. In addition, Singapore Airlines already has exposure to low-cost services via its Silk Air subsidiary and its majority shareholding in Tiger Airways. That said, it is clear that demand for low-cost travel is booming in Asia and the carrier believes it can use its reputation and capabilities to its advantage in the low-cost sector .

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary .. 5
Industry SWOT Analysis .... 7
Singapore Tourism SWOT . 7
Singapore Political Environment and Risk Analysis . 8
Singapore Economic Environment and Risk Analysis .... 9
Singapore Business Environment SWOT ... 10

Market Projection Scenario .. 11
Arrivals ... 11
Data : Arrivals, from 2009 to 2016 ... 12
Accommodation 12
Data : Hotels Data, from 2009 to 2016 .. 13
Expenditure .. 13
Data : Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, from 2009 to 2016 ... 14
Inbound Tourism .... 14
Data : Inbound Tourism By Region, from 2009 to 2016 . 15
Data : Inbound Tourism By Country, from 2009 to 2016 (‘000) .... 16
Outbound Tourism . 17
Data : Outbound Tourism, from 2009 to 2016 . 17
Data : Departures By Destination Country, from 2009 to 2016 (‘000) .... 18

Industry Analysis - Travel 19
Commercial Airlines ... 19
Data : Low-Cost Airlines - Key Players, 2012 ... 21
Cruises .... 21
World Oil Products Price Outlook . 23

Industry Analysis - Hospitality ... 29
Accommodation 29
Key Players .. 29
Integrated Resorts .. 30
H5N1 Update . 32

Environment Overview Outlook 33
Data : Asia Pacific Tourism Business Environment Ratings ... 33
BMI’s Security Ratings .... 34
Data : Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings .... 34
Data : Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ... 35
Singapore’s Security Risk Ratings .. 35
South Asia Security Overview .... 36
South Asia In A World Context . 36
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security ... 37
External Power Dynamics .... 46
Outlook For South Asia.... 49
World Assumptions .... 51
Data : World Assumptions, from 2010 to 2016 .... 51
Developed States .... 52
Data : Developed States’ Real Gross Domestic Product Growth, from 2010 to 2013 .. 53
Emerging Industries .. 54
Data : Emerging Industries’ Real Gross Domestic Product Growth, from 2010 to 2013 54
Consensus .... 55
Data : Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Consensus Projections, 2012 And 2013 55
Company Profiles ... 56
Singapore Airlines . 56
Tiger Airways.... 59
BMI Methodology .... 61
How We Generate Our Market Projections .... 61
Tourism Market .... 61
Tourism Ratings - Methodology 62
Data : Tourism Business Environment Indicators.... 63
Data : Weighting of Components .... 64
Sources ... 64

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