South Africa Autos Report Q2 2014

  • April 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI is forecasting weak growth for the South African economy over the medium term based on a slowdown in China and ongoing retrenchment in the gold mining sector. Recent industrial unrest, which looks set to continue in 2014, coupled with poor infrastructure and faltering economic growth has contributed to our bearish outlook for the South African automotive sector. After witnessing a slow start to the year, we forecast total vehicle sales will grow a meagre 1.5% in 2014.
2014 is off to a slow start. Latest data available from February 2014 shows passenger vehicle sales declined 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 34,414. In fact the year to date total came in at 72,427, 8.1% lower that for the same period in 2013. Light commercial vehicles fared slightly better, with February sales increasing 1% yo- y to 14,879. However, year-to-date light vehicle sales declined 3%. Heavy vehicle sales displayed a similar pattern with a slower January, year to date sales totalled 703.

Weak economic growth is likely to dampen domestic appetite for vehicles in the short-to-medium term. We are accordingly forecasting a lacklustre 1.5% y-o-y growth in vehicle sales, to 659,188 units in 2014, to be followed by an equally moderate 3% y-o-y growth in 2015. On the upside, high levels of investment spending and infrastructural development projects could bolster commercial vehicle sales. Sales of medium and heavy trucks increased 20.3% y-o-y and 53.6% y-o-y respectively during December2013, according to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA).

Table Of Contents

South Africa Autos Report Q2 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 14
Sales 14
Table: Automotive Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts 14
Production 17
Table: Automotive Production - Historical Data and Forecasts 17
Competitive Landscape 20
Commercial Vehicles 22
Spare Parts 24
Alternative Fuels 25
Macroeconomic Forecast 28
Economic Analysis 28
Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR 28
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity 33
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Africa - Risk Reward/Ratings 34
Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa 37
Company Profile 38
Company Monitor 38
Table: Top 20 SSA Consumer Markets, 2013 39
Toyota South Africa 40
Mercedes-Benz South Africa 42
MAN Truck And Bus (South Africa) 44
Volkswagen South Africa (VWSA) 45
General Motors South Africa (GMSA) 47
Nissan South Africa 49
Ford Motor South Africa 52
Regional Overview 54
Autos - Africa: Fruits of Investment A Key Theme For 2014 54
Competition Heats Up In Kenya 54
Hubs Developing? 56
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Projects 56
Divergent Fortunes Of Nigeria And South Africa 58
Global Industry Overview 59
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs) 59
Europe On Road To Recovery 59
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16 61
China Is BRIC Bright Spot 63
Demographic Forecast 66
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 67
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 68
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 69
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 69
Methodology 70
Industry Forecasts 70
Sector-Specific Methodology 71
Sources 71
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 72
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 73

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