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Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 103 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: A volatile security situation and continuing geopolitical tensions hamper exploration andproduction activities in Ukraine. Regulatory challenges, illustrated by recent tax hikes on oil, gas andmineral extraction, are expected to act as a further deterrent to investment in Ukraine's oil and gas sector.Despite Ukraine's significant gas supply diversification efforts, we expect the country will continue todepend to some extent on Russian gas supplies over the coming winters.

Key forecasts and developments:

- We maintain our forecasts for oil and gas reserves this quarter. However, we note that Chevron andShell's exits from their respective shale gas exploration projects create increasing downside risk to ourgas reserves forecasts.

- Most of Ukraine's refineries remain closed as of 2016 leading to a severe underutilisation of its refiningcapacity. We maintain this situation will endure until an amelioration in the political, economic andsecurity situation comes through.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Ukraine 14
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2020-2025) 21
Refining 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2020-2025) 24
Refined Fuel Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2020-2025) 27
Gas Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Oil 32
Crude Oil 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2020) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025) 34
Refined Fuels 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Reverse Flow Gas Pipeline Connection Capacity From EU To Ukraine 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2019) 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025) 41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 42
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe 42
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 43
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 44
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 48
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Ukraine - Risk/Reward Index 51
Market Overview 53
Ukraine Energy Market Overview 53
Regulatory Structure 53
Fiscal Regime 54
Table: Ukraine Fiscal Regime Terms 54
Licensing Regime 55
Table: Ukraine Licensing Regime 56
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 57
Oil Refineries 57
Table: Refineries In Ukraine 57
Oil Pipelines 58
LNG Terminals 59
Gas Storage 60
Gas Pipelines 60
Competitive Landscape 63
Competitive Landscape Summary 63
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector 64
Table: Key Upstream Players 64
Table: Key Downstream Players 64
Company Profile 65
Naftogaz Ukrainy 65
Rosneft 70
Lukoil Ukraine 73
JKX Oil and Gas 75
Galnaftogaz 80
Other Summaries 83
Regional Overview 88
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 88
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling 88
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand 89
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth 90
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger 91
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 92
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 93
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 94
Glossary 96
Table: Glossary Of Terms 96
Methodology 98
Industry Forecast Methodology 98
Source 100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 100
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 102
Table: Weighting 103

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