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Zambia Mining Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 58 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Zambia's mining royalty reversal will support the sector's investment outlook. However, bothlow copper and coal prices and the country's high degree of mineral policy uncertainty will continue tolimit the sector's production growth until the country's Presidential elections in 2016.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- Mineral policy uncertainty will continue to hurt the sector's growth. Although the April 20, 2015downwards royalty tax revision is positive news for miners, mineral policy uncertainty will limit a shareof investors from entering the sector. The new royalty tax will come into effect on July 1 2015 and willcut royalties on open pit mining from 20.0% to 9.0%. The downwards revision supports our view that theroyalty tax would be unsustainable in its current form (see 'Tax Moderation On The Cards', January 9).

- The current Zambian President, Edward Lungu, was narrowly elected on a populist platform in January2015, hence his reaffirmation of the previous mining royalty tax. However, with the April 2015 slashingof the mining tax, Lungu has backpedalled on his populist stance. As a result, we expect mineral royaltiesto become a hot topic for the upcoming 2016 Presidential election and for mining policy uncertainty toremain high.

Table Of Contents

Zambia Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Zambia Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019) 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Copper: Major Challenges Ahead 10
Latest Developments 10
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Zambia 2012-2020) 10
Table: Zambia - Major New Copper Projects/ Expansions 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Zambia: Hydropower Projects 16
Coal: Sold Growth, Despite Weak Project Pipeline 18
Latest Developments 18
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Zambia 2012-2020) 18
Table: Zambia - Coal Projects 18
Structural Trends 19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 22
Zambia Risk/Reward Index 22
Rewards 22
Risks 22
Africa: Major Risks Remain 23
Key Takeaways 23
Latest Revisions 24
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index 26
Regulatory Development 27
Zambia- Regulatory Development- Policy Uncertainty To Curb Growth 27
Table: Zambia - Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 30
Commodities Forecast 32
Commodities Outlook 32
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 32
Competitive Landscape 33
Table: Zambia Key Players - Comparative Valuation Metrics 34
Company Profile 35
First Quantum - Q2 2016 35
Latest Results 38
Table: First Quantum - Key Financial Data 39
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q1 2016 41
Latest Financial Results 43
Company Strategy 44
Table: Vedanta Resources - Supply Chain Analysis 45
Company Details 46
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data 47
Regional Overview 48
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 53
Methodology 55
Industry Forecast Methodology 55
Sources 56
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 58

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