PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - Brazil Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Summary

GlobalData has released its new Country report, “PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - Brazil Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022”. The type 2 diabetes market is mature and crowded with inexpensive generics. Despite being marked by a late-stage pipeline filled with me-too drugs, this market will undergo substantial growth between 2012 and 2022, more than doubling over this period. The main drivers of growth will be the dramatic increase in disease prevalence and physicians’ efforts to delay disease progression and reduce the costly burden of diabetic complications through the use of combination therapies and novel branded drugs. In the emerging markets in particular, uptake of branded drugs will increase due to rapid economic growth. We anticipate that the type 2 diabetes market will not experience a fundamental shift in the classes of drugs that are preferred by physicians. Rapid uptake of drugs from the novel class of SGLT-2 inhibitors will occur; however, DPP-4 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists will continue dominating the noninsulin type 2 diabetes space. GLP-1 receptor agonists will experience the fastest growth of all classes (CAGR of 17%), due to their weight-loss effects and their novel once-weekly administration, which is preferable to the standard once- or twice-daily therapies.

The Brazilian type 2 diabetes patient pool is expected to grow significantly due to the increasingly elderly population, insurance coverage and increasing awareness of and emphasis on early diagnosis. Physicians, hospitals and other healthcare providers may be reluctant to purchase the branded drugs if costs are not reimbursed by third-party payers.

Scope

- Overview of type 2 diabetes including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
- Detailed information on the key drugs in Brazil including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.

- Sales forecast for the top drugs in Brazil from 2012-2022.
- Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting Brazil type 2 diabetes market.

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return

- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for type 2 diabetes

- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential

- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance

- Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in Brazil

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 11
2 Introduction 12
2.1 Catalyst 12
2.2 Related Reports 13
3 Disease Overview 16
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 16
3.1.1 Etiology 16
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 17
3.1.3 Prognosis 18
3.1.4 Quality of Life 19
3.2 Symptoms 19
4 Disease Management 21
4.1 Treatment Overview 21
4.1.1 Diagnosis and Referrals 21
4.1.2 Treatment Guidelines 22
4.2 Brazil 28
4.2.1 Diagnosis 28
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 28
5 Competitive Assessment 29
5.1 Overview 29
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 30
5.3 Product Profiles - Major Brands 32
5.3.1 Metformin 32
5.3.2 Sulfonylureas (SUs) and Other Insulin Secretagogues 37
5.3.3 ?-glucosidase Inhibitors (AGIs) 41
5.3.4 Thiazolidinediones (TZDs) 44
5.3.5 GLP-1 Receptor Agonists 48
5.3.6 DPP-4 Inhibitors 67
5.3.7 SGLT-2 Inhibitors 88
5.3.8 Insulin Formulations 96
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 116
6.1 Overview 116
6.2 Unmet Needs 117
6.2.1 Drugs Providing Sustained Glycemic Control 117
6.2.2 Drugs with Non-Glycemic Benefits 118
6.2.3 Increased Patient Compliance 119
6.2.4 Drugs with Improved Side-Effect Profiles 120
6.2.5 Earlier Diagnosis 121
6.3 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 122
6.4 Oral Therapy with Sustainable Efficacy 123
6.5 Oral Therapy Offering Weight Loss 123
6.6 Cardio-metabolic Therapy 124
6.7 Promotion of Type 2 Diabetes Drugs in Emerging Markets 124
7 Pipeline Assessment 125
7.1 Overview 125
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 126
7.2.1 Albiglutide 131
7.2.2 Dulaglutide (LY2189265) 136
7.2.3 MK-3102 142
7.2.4 Fasiglifam (TAK-875) 146
7.2.5 LY2409021 150
7.2.6 LY2605541 (insulin peglispro) 154
8 Market Outlook 158
8.1 Brazil 158
8.1.1 Forecast 158
8.1.2 Key Events 162
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 162
9 Appendix 166
9.1 Bibliography 166
9.2 Abbreviations 190
9.3 Methodology 193
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 193
9.4.1 Diagnosed Type 2 Patients 193
9.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 194
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 194
9.4.4 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates 195
9.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions 195
9.4.6 Individual Drug Assumptions 196
9.4.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 205
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 206
9.6 About the Authors 208
9.6.1 Analyst II - CVMD 208
9.6.2 Therapy Director - CVMD and Infectious Disease 208
9.6.3 Global Head of Healthcare 209
9.7 About GlobalData 210
9.8 Disclaimer 210



List of Tables

Table 1: Symptoms of Type 2 Diabetes 20
Table 2: Diagnostic Tests and Typical Criteria for Type 2 Diabetes 21
Table 3: Treatment Guidelines for Type 2 Diabetes 23
Table 4: Most-Prescribed Drugs (Following Metformin and Sulfonylureas) for Type 2 Diabetes by Class in the Global Markets, 2012 26
Table 5: Leading Branded Treatments for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012 31
Table 6: Product Profile - Metformin 34
Table 7: Metformin SWOT Analysis, 2012 36
Table 8: First-Generation Sulfonylureas 38
Table 9: Second-Generation Sulfonylureas 38
Table 10: Product Profile - Sulfonylureas 39
Table 11: Sulfonylureas SWOT Analysis, 2012 40
Table 12: Product Profile - Acarbose 42
Table 13: AGIs SWOT Analysis, 2012 44
Table 14: Product Profile - Actos 46
Table 15: Actos SWOT Analysis, 2012 48
Table 16: GLP-1 Receptor Agonists 50
Table 17: Product Profile - Byetta 52
Table 18: Byetta SWOT Analysis, 2012 54
Table 19: Product Profile - Victoza 56
Table 20: Victoza SWOT Analysis, 2012 58
Table 21: Product Profile - Bydureon 60
Table 22: Bydureon SWOT Analysis, 2012 62
Table 23: Product Profile - Lyxumia 64
Table 24: Lyxumia SWOT Analysis, 2012 67
Table 25: Marketed DPP-4 Inhibitors 69
Table 26: Marketed DPP-4 Inhibitors in Combination with Other OADs 69
Table 27: Product Profile - Januvia 71
Table 28: Januvia SWOT Analysis, 2012 73
Table 29: Product Profile - Onglyza 75
Table 30: Onglyza SWOT Analysis, 2012 77
Table 31: Product Profile - Tradjenta 79
Table 32: Tradjenta SWOT Analysis, 2012 81
Table 33: Product Profile - Galvus 83
Table 34: Galvus SWOT Analysis, 2012 86
Table 35: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Galvus and Eucreas, 2012-2022 87
Table 36: Product Profile - Forxiga 90
Table 37: Forxiga SWOT Analysis, 2012 92
Table 38: Product Profile - Invokana 93
Table 39: Invokana SWOT Analysis, 2012 95
Table 40: Insulins - Overview and Comparison 97
Table 41: Insulin Formulations 97
Table 42: Product Profile - Humalog 98
Table 43: Humalog SWOT Analysis, 2012 100
Table 44: Product Profile - Lantus 101
Table 45: Lantus SWOT Analysis, 2012 104
Table 46: Product Profile - Levemir 105
Table 47: Levemir SWOT Analysis, 2012 107
Table 48: Product Profile - Novolog 108
Table 49: Novolog SWOT Analysis, 2012 109
Table 50: Product Profile - Apidra 110
Table 51: Apidra SWOT Analysis, 2012 112
Table 52: Product Profile - Tresiba 113
Table 53: Tresiba SWOT Analysis, 2012 115
Table 54: Overall Unmet Needs - Current Level of Attainment 116
Table 55: Clinical Unmet Needs - Gap Analysis, 2013 122
Table 56: Type 2 Diabetes - Phase Pipeline, 2012 128
Table 57: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012 129
Table 58: Product Profile - Albiglutide 132
Table 59: Albiglutide SWOT Analysis, 2013 136
Table 60: Product Profile - Dulaglutide 138
Table 61: Dulaglutide SWOT Analysis, 2012 142
Table 62: Product Profile - MK-3102 143
Table 63: MK-3102 SWOT Analysis, 2013 145
Table 64: Product Profile - Fasiglifam 147
Table 65: Fasiglifam SWOT Analysis, 2013 150
Table 66: Product Profile - LY2409021 151
Table 67: LY2409021 SWOT Analysis, 2013 153
Table 68: Product Profile - LY2605541 155
Table 69: LY2605541 SWOT Analysis, 2013 157
Table 70: Brazil Sales Forecasts ($m) for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012-2022 159
Table 71: Key Events Impacting Sales for Type 2 Diabetes in Brazil, 2012-2022 162
Table 72: Type 2 Diabetes Market - Drivers and Barriers in Brazil, 2012 162
Table 73: Key Launch Dates 195
Table 74: Key Patent Expiries 195
Table 75: Number of High-Prescribing Physicians Surveyed 207



List of Figures

Figure 1: ADA/EASD General Recommendations for Antihyperglycemic Therapy 25
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Type 2 Diabetes, 2012-2022 130
Figure 3: Sales for Type 2 Diabetes in Brazil by Drug Class, 2012-2022 161

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