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Caribbean Tourism Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will pick up to 2.3% in 2016, reflecting improved visitornumbers from Europe and North America. The Dominican Republic, St Eustatius and Cuba are expectingthe highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets will experience growth in 2016. However, theoutbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 2.3% in 2016, to 33.5mn, reflecting animprovement from growth of only 0.6% in 2015. We expect the Dominican Republic, Cuba, St Eustatiusand St Lucia to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 6%, but we note the positive signthat all Caribbean countries except St Vincent will experience arrivals growth in 2016, for the first timesince the downturn.Despite this positive outlook, we believe that the Zika virus outbreak could pose a risk to our forecasts in2016. The virus, which can lead to cases of microcephaly in pregnant women, has been identified in severalCaribbean countries and the US Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) issued a travel warningin January 2016, advising pregnant woman not to travel to those countries. Data is not yet available onJanuary arrivals, so we are unable to assess whether this warning has had a major deterrent effect. However,if this is the case, then there will be a negative impact on arrivals and tourism receipts for 2016.

Table Of Contents

Caribbean Tourism Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Tourism 8
Industry Forecast 10
Regional Forecast 10
Table: Caribbean Inbound Tourism, 2012-2020 12
Table: Caribbean Country-By-Country Breakdown Of Arrivals, Excluding Cruise, 2014-2020 13
Table: Caribbean Arrivals By Method and Region, 2012-2020 16
Table: Caribbean Transport and Travel Receipts, 2012-2020 18
Hotels 19
Table: Caribbean Hotel Accommodation, 2012-2020 19
Table: Caribbean Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, 2012-2020 20
Country-Specific Forecasts 22
The Bahamas 22
Table: Bahamas Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 23
The Dominican Republic 23
Table: Dominican Republic Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 24
Jamaica 24
Table: Jamaica Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 26
Aruba 26
Table: Aruba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 27
Cuba 27
Table: Cuba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 29
The Cayman Islands 29
Table: Cayman Islands Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 30
Puerto Rico 30
Table: Puerto Rico Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 31
Barbados 31
Table: Barbados Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 32
St Lucia 32
Table: St Lucia Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019 33
Trinidad and Tobago 33
Table: Trinidad and Tobago Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019 34
Industry Risk/Reward Index 35
Tourism Risk/Reward Index 35
Table: Caribbean - Tourism Risk/Reward Index 35
Rewards 36
Risks 36
Market Overview 38
Competitive Landscape 42
Domestic Hotel Groups 42
Table: Domestic Hotel Groups 42
International Hotel Groups 44
Table: International Hotel Groups 44
Methodology 46
Industry Forecast Methodology 46
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 49

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