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Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 124 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for Kazakhstan's oil production, thanks to huge undergroundpotential and the delayed Kashagan field expected to come online in 2017, with the Tengiz project forecastto start production in 2021. Our forecasts for gas and refined products consumption have been reviseddown for 2016 as economic headwinds impact consumer spending.

Key developments in Kazakhstan's oil & gas industry:

- The Kazakh Energy Ministry stated that it had plans to carry out additional evaluation work on Aktotyand Kairan fields, with further exploration work also expected to be done on the Kurmangazy field in2016.

- We expect oil production to be 1.67mn b/d in 2016, with steady increases forecast until 2022. The risksfor oil production lie to the upside, with plenty of room for expansion on a number of Kazakhstan'shydrocarbon rich fields.

- We have slightly downgraded gas consumption in 2016 on account of strong economic headwinds. In thelonger term, we expect a strong growth trajectory.

- Kazakhstan's energy ministry expects Russia to grant exploration rights for the central field of theRussian sector of the Caspian Sea. The original exploration license expired in 2009 and the Russiangovernment at the time did not allow the grant to be renewed.

- Kazakhstan's economy will suffer in the low oil price environment, with GDP per capita expected to fallfrom USD10,881 in 2015 to USD8,299 in 2016. On the back of a weak macro backdrop we havedowngraded Kazakhstan's refined products consumption for 2016 from 284,300b/d to 267,750b/d.

- We note that overall gas consumption will remain constrained by infrastructure limitations. We highlightdownside risk to consumption should government plans for pipeline expansions to connect the producingnorthwest to other areas of the country not follow through: the size of the country and the relativelyunpopulated areas of several regions make these projects challenging economically.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Kazakhstan Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 29
Gas Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Crude Oil Trade Forecast 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2020) 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 35
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 41
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 41
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe 41
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 42
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 43
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 45
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 46
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index 48
Kazakhstan - Risk/Reward Index 50
Upstream - Rewards 50
Upstream - Risks 50
Downstream - Rewards 50
Downstream - Risks 51
Market Overview 52
Kazakhstan Energy Market Overview 52
Regulatory Structure 52
Fiscal Regime 52
Table: Kazakhstan Fiscal Regime 53
Licensing Regime 53
Table: Kazakhstan Licensing Regime 54
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 56
Oil Refineries 56
Table: Major Refineries In Kazakhstan 57
Oil Terminals/Ports 59
Oil Pipelines 59
Gas Storage Facilities 61
Gas Pipelines 61
Competitive Landscape 63
Competitive Landscape Summary 63
Table: Key Players - Kazakhstan Oil And Gas Sector 65
Company Profile 66
Chevron 66
CNPC 71
Eni Kazakhstan 77
ExxonMobil Kazakhstan 83
KMG 87
Lukoil Kazakhstan 95
Shell Kazakhstan 99
Other Summaries 102
Regional Overview 109
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 109
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling 109
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand 110
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth 111
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger 112
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 113
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 114
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 115
Glossary 117
Table: Glossary Of Terms 117
Methodology 119
Industry Forecast Methodology 119
Source 121
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 121
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 123
Table: Weighting 124

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