Malaysia Defence and Security Industry Update Quarter 2 2012

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Malaysia Security SWOT 7
Malaysia Defence Industry SWOT 8
Malaysia Political SWOT . 9
Malaysia Economic SWOT . 11
Malaysia Business Environment SWOT 12
Global Political Outlook 13
Global Political Outlook 2013 . 13
Table: Election Timetable . 17
South East Asia Security Overview 22
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 22
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 22
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia 25
Other Regional Threats. 29
Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia 32
The Outlook For South East Asia 33
Security Risk Analysis 34
Asia Pacific Risk Ratings . 34
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 34
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 35
Malaysia's Risk Ratings . 35
Political Overview 37
Political Politics 37
Cash Handouts For Lower Income Groups A Bid To Boost Support . 37
Popularity Polls Suggest A Tight Race . 37
Fresh Demonstrations Could Hurt BN's Chances . 38
Long-Term Political Outlook 38
Race Relations Still Cloud The Horizon 38
Threats And Challenges To Stability . 39
Scenarios For Political Change 41
Malaysia Security Overview 43
Internal Security Situation . 43
Table: Insurgent Groups . 46
External Security Situation 46
Insurgent And Terrorist Activity . 48
Piracy . 49
Table: Piracy Attacks And Attempted Attacks, 1996-2006 50
Bilateral And Multilateral Relations . 50
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 54
Armed Forces . 54
Defence Budget . 57
International Deployment . 58
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 59
Market Overview 60
Industry Trends And Developments 61
Industry Forecast Scenario . 64
Armed Forces 64
Table: Malaysia's Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 64
Table: Malaysia's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010 - 2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 64
Defence Expenditure 65
Table: Malaysia's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 . 65
Table: Malaysia's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 66
Defence Trade 66
Table: Malaysia's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 66
Table: Malaysia's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 67
Table: Malaysia's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn). 67
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 68
Macroeconomic Outlook 68
MALAYSIA - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 72
Company Profiles 73
AIROD 73
Composite Technology Research Malaysia (CTRM) 74
Deftech 75
EADS 76
Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering (MMHE) . 77
SME Ordnance . 79
Country Snapshot: Malaysia Demographic Data 80
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 81
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 82
Table: Malaysia'sKey Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 83
Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 83
BMI Methodology 84
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 84
Defence Industry . 84
Sources . 85