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Russia Mining Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Russia's gold and coal production growth will be the sector's relative bright spots, while PGM'sand iron ore output growth will grind to a halt. Low metal prices, the country's inadequate infrastructureand Western sanctions will continue to limit the sector's production growth.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- Although Russia's mining sector holds significant production growth potential - due to its rich mineraldeposits, including coal, iron ore, gold and platinum - the country's bureaucratic hurdles, Westernsanctions and weak mineral prices will limit new projects from coming online and weaken mining outputgrowth over the coming quarters.

- Coal: With 157bn tonnes (bnt) of coal deposits, Russia's holds the second-largest recoverable coalreserves in the world. We expect Russia's coal production to grow from 392mn tonnes (mnt) in 2015 to427mnt in 2019, as production ramps up in country's Kuznets basin. This would represent an averageannual production growth of 2.3% during 2016-2020, significantly lower than the average 6.4% during2010-2014.

- Gold: Russia will remain the world's third largest gold producer, with significant potential to expandoutput and increase the country's share of global gold production. We expect Russia to account for 9.6%of global gold production in 2016. We forecast Russia's gold output to grow from 8.0 million ounces(moz) in 2016 to 8.4moz in 2020. This would represent an average annual growth of 1.5% during2016-2020, significantly slower than 5.3% during 2011-2015.

- Iron Ore: Russia's iron ore production growth will be supported by the country's vast iron ore reservesand Metalloinvest's strategy to increase output through innovation at the firm's existing mines. Russiaholds more than 25bnt of iron ore reserves, making it the third largest holder of reserves, after Australiaand Brazil, respectively. We forecast Russia's iron ore production to grow from 110mnt in 2016 to123mnt in 2020, averaging annual growth of 2.7% during 2016-2020, showcasing consistent growthfollowing 2.7% y-o-y during 2010-2014.

Table Of Contents

Russia Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Russia Mining Industry Value 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Coal: Eastward Shift To Support Sector 11
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Russia 2014-2020) 11
Table: Russia - Distance From Coal Production Area To Shipping Seaport 18
Gold: Modest Growth Despite Headwinds 20
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Russia 2014-2020) 20
Iron Ore: Modest Growth Despite Headwinds 24
Table: Iron Ore Production (Russia, 2014-2020) 24
Nickel: Challenges Lie Ahead 29
Table: Nickel Mine Production (Russia, 2014-2019) 29
Palladium: Slow Growth In Years Ahead 33
Table: Palladium Production 33
Platinum: Growth To Stagnate 36
Table: Russia - Platinum Production 36
Table: Russia - Largest Platinum Projects 36
Industry Risk/Reward Index 40
Russia Risk/Reward Index 40
Europe: Majority To Be Low Risk-Reward 41
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 42
Regulatory Development 43
Commodities Forecast 47
Commodities Outlook 47
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 47
Competitive Landscape 48
Table: Russia - Key Financial Data For Select Mining Companies 49
Company Profile 50
Polyus Gold 50
Table: Polyus Gold - Financial Data 51
SUEK 53
Table: SUEK Subsidiaries 55
Regional Overview 58
Methodology 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sources 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 67

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