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  5. > Russia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Russia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 178 pages

BMI View: Oil production outperformed in 2015, but will decline from 2016 as tax changes and sanctionslimit upstream development. Gas production, which underperformed in 2015, will improve as domestic andforeign demand pick up.The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's oil & gas sector are:

- 2015 crude and condensate production averaged a post-Soviet high of 10.716mn b/d. We forecastproduction to fall slightly in 2016.

- Crude and condensate exports increased by over 400,000b/d from 2014 to 2015, though this will decreasein 2016 as production falters.

Table Of Contents

Russia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Russia - Major Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Russia Oil Commitments To China 42
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2014-2019) 45
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2020-2025) 45
Upstream Production - Gas 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2014-2019) 50
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2020-2025) 50
Refining 51
Latest Updates 51
Structural Trends 51
Table: Major Refinery Upgrades Planned And Underdevelopment 53
Export Duty Freeze To Reduce Refining Runs 53
Table: Crude And Fuel Export Duty Changes Now Frozen At 2015 Levels 54
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2014-2019) 55
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2020-2025) 55
Refined Fuels Consumption 56
Latest Updates 56
Structural Trends 56
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2014-2019) 58
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2020-2025) 58
Gas Consumption 59
Latest Updates 59
Structural Trends 59
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2014-2019) 61
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2020-2025) 61
Trade - Oil 62
Latest Updates 62
Crude Oil Trade 62
Structural Trends 62
Pivot To The East 63
Table: Russia - Oil Commitments To China 64
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2014-2020) 64
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) 65
Refined Products Trade 65
Structural Trends 65
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019) 67
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) 68
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 68
Latest Updates 68
Change In Trade Patterns Ahead 68
Upside Risks To Gas Export Forecasts 70
LNG 71
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019) 73
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) 73
Industry Risk Reward Index 74
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 74
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 74
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 76
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 76
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 78
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 79
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 81
Russia Risk/Reward Index 82
Upstream Index - Rewards 82
Upstream Index - Risks 82
Downstream Index - Overview 84
Market Overview 85
Russia Energy Market Overview 85
Regulatory Structure 85
Fiscal Regime 85
Table: Export Duty 87
Licensing Regime 88
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 90
Oil Refineries 90
Table: Major Refineries - Russia 90
Table: Russian Refinery Upgrades 92
Oil Terminals/Ports 92
Table: Russian Oil Ports 92
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 93
Table: Current And Proposed LNG Terminals 93
LNG Import Terminal 94
Planned Oil and Gas Pipelines 94
Table: Major Proposed International Pipelines 94
Competitive Landscape 96
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Russian Oil and Gas Sector 98
Table: Key Upstream Players 98
Table: Key Downstream Players 99
Company Profile 100
Gazprom 100
Gazprom Neft 109
Rosneft 118
Lukoil 128
Novatek 135
Russneft 141
Tatneft 144
Total 148
Other Summaries 153
Regional Overview 163
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 163
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling 163
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand 164
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth 165
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger 166
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 167
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 168
Table: Central and Eastern Europe - Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 169
Glossary 171
Table: Glossary Of Terms 171
Methodology 173
Industry Forecast Methodology 173
Source 175
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 175
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 177
Table: Weighting 178

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